Nate Bruce, Farm Business Management Specialist, nsbruce@udel.edu
As of 7/24/2024:
The downtrend in corn prices continued during the month of July. Any potential rallies driven by bullish news have been quashed before gaining steam, keeping futures well below where corn prices were in June. Futures have traded in a $0.10 – $0.20 range throughout the month. Corn carryover continues to dampen the market and the USDA monthly report did little to make the situation better. Soybean prices have experienced a significant rally in the last week driven by China deciding to import US soybeans. This was the first Chinese purchase of US soybeans thus far in 2024. Prior to this, the soybean price trend was down for most of the month pushing local new crop soybeans below $10.00 per bushel with basis. Soybean prices were much more volatile in the month of July, trading in a range of $0.10 – $1.00 across futures. Wheat prices experienced a downward trend during the beginning of the month across futures, possibly reaching bottom as prices have been on the rise since. The recent increase in wheat prices has been driven by demand driven purchasing with buyers taking advantage of the multi-year lows. How long this rally will go on is uncertain. If this continues, producers considering growing 2024-2025 wheat may want to consider making new crop sales in August. Wheat prices traded in a $0.20 – $0.70 range across futures over the course of the month.
The July USDA (World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) WASDE report was published on July 12th. USDA made quite a few corn revisions in the July report from the June estimates but can be seen anchoring down as increases offset the decreases. Area planted increased from 90 million acres to 91.5 million acres. Expected acres harvested also increased, from 82.1 million acres to 83.4 million acres. The estimated yield per acre remained unchanged at 181 bushels per acre. Beginning stocks and ending stocks decreased from the June report with Ending stocks decreased from 2,102 million bushels to 2,097 million bushels. Production, feed and residual demand, domestic demand, and exports all increased from the June estimates. Imports, and ethanol demand remained unchanged. The farm season average price decreased from $4.40 per bushel to $4.30 per bushel. The July USDA WASDE estimated decreased soybean acres planted from the June estimate, down from 86.5 million acres to 86.1 million acres. In addition, the estimated acres harvested also decreased from the June estimate from 85.6 million acres to 85.3 million acres. The harvested yield per acre remained unchanged at 52 bushels per acre. Beginning stocks, production, and ending stocks all decreased from the June estimates. Ending stocks decreased from 455 million bushels to 435 million bushels. Imports, exports, seed, and residual demand all remained unchanged from the June estimates. The average farm season price decreased from $11.20 per bushel to $11.10 per bushel. The July WASDE estimated decreased wheat acreage planted from the June estimate, down from 47.5 million acres to 47.2 million acres. Wheat acres harvested increased from 38 million acres to 38.8 million acres. Beginning stocks, production, feed and residual demand, and exports all increased from the June estimates. Ending stocks increased from 758 million bushels to 856 million bushels while wheat imports decreased from the June estimate. Food and seed demand remained unchanged. The average farm season price fell significantly from $6.50 per bushel to $5.70 per bushel. The next USDA WASDE will be on Monday August 12th. Expectations for the next report will be discussed at the third quarter Delaware Grain Marketing Club Meeting on August 8th at the Kent County Extension Office.
Wheat harvest is well underway in Russia, the world’s number one wheat exporting country. Russian wheat yields have continued to come in less then expected throughout harvest. In addition, extreme weather patterns such as heatwave, frosts, and floods have continued to hamper harvest. The Rostov region of Russia accounts for 11% of the countries Wheat production. The Russian agriculture ministry has cut the regions wheat output by 38% and the nation’s total wheat production by 9%. Many analysts feel the harvest decline may be well on its way even lower. China made their first purchase of US soybeans during the month of July, improving prices. The USDA report was neutral on soybeans, so this purchase was much needed for prices to rally. Brazil’s version of USDA, CONAB, has increased the total output for the second corn crop, safrinha. CONAB has pegged the second corn crop up 2.1% from their June estimate at 90 million tons. This is still however over 10% lower from 2023 due to weather issues earlier in the production year.
Corn Futures
Soybean Futures
Wheat Futures
