Nate Bruce, Farm Business Management Specialist, nsbruce@udel.edu
March is going to be a critically important month for commodity prices. South American crops are coming into fruition and USDA will be releasing the projected planting report on March 28th. Corn prices may have reached their low price point during the second half of February. December corn has jumped $0.10 cents since reaching a market price low of $4.50 in late February. All corn futures have increased since the late February low. Prices were helped considerably with short positions exiting the market and rumors of China looking to import corn. Soybean prices have been relatively flat thus far in March as Brazil finishes up harvest. Soybean export demand has been consistently weak but the demand for soybean oil and crush remains strong. Wheat prices are in total freefall despite lower production in several major exporters. Wheat markets may have adjusted to a new normal larger global supply, despite the geopolitical tensions present in the world right now. At the time of this writing, WASDE will be released tomorrow on March 8th. The next WASDE report will come out on April 11th.
Brazil is in the middle of harvesting soybeans. Last month, CONAB, the Brazilian equivalent of USA cut their outlook for soybeans to 149.40 million tons. Between CONAB, USDA, and various Agribusiness Firms, the 2023/24 Brazilian crop is expected to be somewhere between 148 – 152 million tons. This harvest could potentially be the second-largest crop on record. Harvest will continue this month and the reality will become clearer. Either way, China is continuing to purchase everything they need from Brazil right now, driving domestic production out of the export market. Brazil, Argentina, and the US accounts for 80% of all global soybean output. In addition to soybean news out of Brazil, Argentina is expecting an increase in soybean production this marketing year, further cementing the South American stranglehold over the export market. In addition, there were reports recently of several cargo ships importing Brazilian grain into ports on the eastern seaboard of the United States. Poland is on the front line of a European grain crisis that is continuing to widen. The Ukraine-Russian War has forced Ukrainian grain to find alternative export routes other than the Black Sea. Overland across the Polish border has been met with strong resistance from Polish farmers. Russian grain is entering the European Union through the Polish / Belarusian border, increasing tension through Eastern Europe. The war has not been the major market mover that many thought it would be in the earliest days of the conflict. World grain supplies have seemed to find a balance.
Corn Futures
Soybean Futures
Wheat Futures
