Grain Marketing Highlights

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Carl German, Extension Crops Marketing Specialist; clgerman@udel.edu 

Commodity Markets Struggle to Find Direction
Next week’s release of the March 10th Crop Production and USDA Supply/Demand reports should shed light on demand revisions for ‘09/‘10 marketing year corn, soybeans, and wheat. Prospective Plantings for the 2010 domestic cropping season will not be reported until March 31. Grain Stocks in all positions will also be released on that date. Based upon Monday’s close (March 1), new crop corn, soybean, and SRW wheat prices are only slightly better than they were bidding two weeks ago, moving from an initial oversold to an overbought situation. Dec ‘10 corn futures closing at $4.06 on Monday had gained 11 cents per bushel; Nov ‘10 soybeans at $9.42 gained 11 cents per bushel; while SRW wheat at $5.16 had gained only 4 cents per bushel since February 19.

Weekly Export Inspections
Weekly inspections, reported on March 1, should be viewed as neutral to bearish for corn. The reported 38.9 million bushels was below the 46.1 million bushels needed this week to be on pace with USDA’s projection of 2 billion bushels for the ‘09-‘10 marketing year.

Soybean inspections of 40.1 million bushels should be viewed as bullish as the market needed 12.6 million bushels this week to be on pace with USDA’s projection of 1.4 billion bushels for the current marketing year.

Weekly wheat inspections of 17.7 million bushels should be viewed as neutral to bullish as the market needed 16.1 million bushels this week to be on pace with USDA’s projection of 825 million bushels for the ‘09-‘10 marketing year.

Market Strategy
During the next few weeks, we are likely to see the commodity markets drifting sideways with limited breaks to the upside and downside, depending upon outside market forces, exports, and fund activity. Currently the Dow is trading at 10,438; the dollar index at 80.78; and nearby crude is trading at $78.70 per barrel. For technical assistance on making grain marketing decisions contact Carl L. German, Extension Crops Marketing Specialist.