Carl German, Extension Crops Marketing Specialist; clgerman@udel.edu
US Supply/Demand Summary, 8/10/12, Million Bushels
|
Corn |
Soybeans |
Wheat |
|||||||
| Crop Year |
11-12 |
12-13 |
12-13 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
12-13 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
12-13 |
| Report Date |
07/11 |
06/12 |
07/11 |
07/11 |
06/12 |
07/11 |
07/11 |
06/12 |
07/11 |
| Carryin |
1,128 |
903 |
1,021 |
215 |
170 |
145 |
862 |
743 |
743 |
| Production |
12,358 |
12,970 |
10,779 |
3,056 |
3,050 |
2,692 |
1,999 |
2,224 |
2,268 |
| Imports |
25 |
30 |
75 |
15 |
15 |
20 |
112 |
120 |
130 |
| Tot Supply |
13,511 |
13,903 |
11,875 |
3,286 |
3,235 |
2,857 |
2,974 |
3,087 |
3,141 |
| Feed |
4,550 |
4,800 |
4,075 |
163 |
200 |
220 |
|||
| Crush/Mill* |
1,360 |
1,390 |
1,320 |
1,690 |
1,610 |
1,515 |
941 |
950 |
950 |
| Ethanol Prod |
5,000 |
4,900 |
4,500 |
||||||
| Seed/Other |
30 |
30 |
30 |
101 |
124 |
116 |
77 |
73 |
73 |
| Exports |
1,550 |
1,600 |
1,300 |
1,350 |
1,370 |
1,110 |
1,050 |
1,200 |
1,200 |
| Total Use |
12,490 |
12,720 |
11,225 |
3,141 |
3,105 |
2,742 |
2,231 |
2,423 |
2,443 |
| Carryout |
1,021 |
1,183 |
650 |
145 |
130 |
115 |
743 |
664 |
698 |
| Stocks/Use Rate |
8.20% |
9.30% |
5.80% |
4.60% |
4.20% |
4.20% |
33.30% |
27.40% |
28.60% |
| Avg Price |
6.1 |
5.9 |
8.2 |
$12.45 |
$14.00 |
$16.00 |
$7.24 |
$6.80 |
$8.30 |
*Excludes corn for ethanol
● The domestic estimates should be considered bullish for corn, bullish for soybeans and neutral for wheat.
● Ending stocks and stocks-to-use dropped for corn, soybeans and wheat.
● The buzz among commodity traders is likely to be whether the production numbers are low enough.
World S& D Summary, 8/10/12, Million Metric Tons
|
Corn |
Soybeans |
Wheat |
|||||||
| Crop Year |
11-12 |
12-13 |
12-13 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
12-13 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
12-13 |
| Report Date |
07/11 |
06/12 |
07/11 |
07/11 |
06/12 |
07/11 |
07/11 |
06/12 |
07/11 |
| Carryin |
127.47 |
129.37 |
135.97 |
70.19 |
52.51 |
51.94 |
197.97 |
197.18 |
197.59 |
| Production |
876.84 |
905.23 |
849.01 |
236.03 |
267.16 |
260.46 |
695.18 |
665.33 |
662.83 |
| Total Supply |
1,004.3 |
1,034.6 |
984.98 |
306.22 |
319.67 |
312.4 |
893.15 |
862.51 |
860.42 |
| Feed |
507.58 |
535.95 |
508.74 |
145.64 |
130.33 |
134.09 |
|||
| Crush |
224.64 |
232.39 |
227.03 |
||||||
| Other |
360.77 |
364.56 |
352.9 |
29.2 |
30.76 |
29.89 |
549.92 |
549.73 |
549.16 |
| Total Use |
868.35 |
900.51 |
861.64 |
253.84 |
263.15 |
256.92 |
695.56 |
680.06 |
683.25 |
| End Carryout |
135.97 |
134.09 |
123.33 |
51.94 |
55.66 |
53.38 |
197.59 |
182.44 |
177.17 |
| Stocks/Use Rat |
15.70% |
14.90% |
14.30% |
20.50% |
21.20% |
20.80% |
28.40% |
26.80% |
25.90% |
● Ending stocks were reduced across the board for corn, soybeans, and wheat.
● Stock-to-use ratios were also reduced across the board for the world estimates.
Market Strategy
Commodity markets are expected to remain extremely volatile in the near term, although some analysts would argue that the August estimates may already be factored into commodity prices. It is more likely that crop production for 2012 corn and soybean production will be further reduced in the September S & D estimates. Fundamentally, the outlook remains bullish and should continue to support the corn, soybean and wheat markets. Currently, Dec ‘12 corn futures are trading at $8.22 per bushel, Nov ‘12 soybeans at $16.54; with July ‘13 SRW wheat futures at $8.57 per bushel.
For technical assistance on making grain marketing decisions contact Carl L. German, Extension crops Marketing Specialist.