Carl German, Extension Crops Marketing Specialist; clgerman@udel.edu
Weekly Crop Progress 05/13
U.S. corn planting was reported to be 87 percent complete with 56 percent emerged as of Sunday May 13. U.S. soybean planting was 46 percent complete and 19 percent emerged. Winter wheat was 72 percent headed with overall conditions in much better shape than last year. Spring wheat and barley were also reported to be well ahead of the five year average for planting and emergence.
USDA Export Sales Report 05/17
Pre-report estimates for the week ending May 10 placed weekly corn export sales at 31.5 to 55.1 million bushels. Total export sales for the week were recorded at 34.1 million bushels with 13.4 million scheduled for the current marketing year. This was above the 13.1 million bushels needed this week to stay on pace with USDA’s export projection of 1.7 billion bushels. Weekly shipments of 26.2 million bushels were below the 35.5 million bushels needed this week. This report is viewed as slightly bearish.
Pre-report estimates for weekly export sales of soybeans ranged from 40.4 to 58.8 million bushels. Total export sales were reported at 24.7 million bushels with 22.6 million scheduled for ‘11/‘12. This was well above the 2.8 million bushels needed this week to stay on pace with USDA’s export demand projection of 1.315 billion bushels. Shipments of 20.9 million bushels were well above the 13.8 million bushels needed this week. This report is viewed as bullish.
Pre-report estimates for wheat exports ranged from 14.7 to 29.4 million bushels. Total export sales were reported at 26.1 million bushels with 11.8 million bushels scheduled for the current year. This was above the 3.6 million bushels needed this week to stay on pace with USDA’s demand projection of 1.025 billion bushels. Weekly shipments of 24.9 million bushels were below the 33.9 million bushels needed this week. This report is viewed as bearish.
Market Strategy
The U.S. wheat harvest is expected to begin at least two to three weeks early this year paving the way for the likelihood that more acres will go to double crop soybeans, possibly increasing 2012 U.S. soybean acreage by another 2 million acres (+ or -). Even so, old crop and new crop soybean supplies will remain at tight levels.
The commodity markets continue to grind along as the 2012 growing season gets well underway. The recent sell-off created buying opportunities for commercial and non-commercial traders in the near term. China was rumored to have made large purchases of U.S. corn and soybeans this week coming on the back of slightly bearish corn and bullish soybean sales for the week ending May 13. For the moment this was fundamentally price supportive.
The equities markets are experiencing a backlash from the EU with major resistance getting in the way of needed financial reforms. It remains to be seen whether the Euro remains intact. World equity and commodity markets will be impacted by the outcome. The U.S. dollar has strengthened every day for the past two weeks as a result of the ongoing uncertainty in the European Union.
The new crop corn price has recovered about 20 cents per bushel from the low of last week’s sell-off. New crop SRW wheat has rebounded about 40 cents per bushel. New crop soybeans are only showing a single digit gain. Uncertainty abounds. Currently, Dec ‘12 corn futures are trading at $5.28; Nov ‘12 soybeans at $13.09; and July SRW wheat at $6.41 per bushel.
For technical assistance on making grain marketing decisions contact Carl L. German, Extension Crops Marketing Specialist.