Grain Marketing Highlights – May 11, 2012

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Carl German, Extension Crops Marketing Specialist; clgerman@udel.edu

U.S. Supply/Demand Summary

U.S. Highlights

•U.S. ending stocks of corn were increased 50 million bushels from the April estimate due to lower feed usage. The increase was not expected.

•Corn ending stocks for the ‘12/’13 marketing year were estimated at 1.881 billion bushels, nearly 180 million bushels above average pre-report expectations.

•As a result ending stocks-to-use for the ‘12/’13 marketing year are expected to increase to 13.7%, more than double the 6.7% for the current marketing year.

•U.S. soybean ending stock estimates for the current marketing year were lowered 40 million bushels sending the stocks-to-use estimate lower, now estimated at 6.8%.

•U.S. soybean ending stocks for the next marketing year are projected at 4.4%, a record tight level.

•Wheat ending stocks were reduced 25 million bushels due to an increase in exports.

•The domestic stocks-to-use ratio for all wheat was reduced from 36.2% to 34.7% for the ‘11/‘12 marketing year.

US Supply/Demand Estimates, May 10, 2012, Million Bushels

Corn Soybeans Wheat
Crop Year 11-12 11-12 12-13 11-12 11-12 12-13 11-12 11-12 12-13
Report Date 10-Apr 10-May 10-May 10-Apr 10-May 10-May 10-Apr 10-May 10-May
Carryin 1,128 1,128 851 215 215 210 862 862 768
Production 12,358 12,358 14,790 3,056 3,056 3,205 1,999 1,999 2,245
Imports 20 20 15 15 15 15 120 120 120
Total Supply 13,506 13,506 15,656 3,286 3,286 3,430 2,982 2,982 3,133
Feed 4,600 4,550 5,450 180 180 230
Crush/Mill* 1,375 1,375 1,395 1,630 1,645 1,655 930 930 945
Ethanol Prod. 5,000 5,000 5,000
Seed/Other 30 30 30 116 116 125 79 79 73
Exports 1,700 1,700 1,900 1,290 1,315 1,505 1,000 1,025 1,150
Total Use 12,705 12,655 13,775 3,036 3,076 3,285 2,189 2,214 2,398
Carryout 801 851 1,881 250 210 145 793 768 735
Stocks/Use Rat 6.3% 6.7% 13.7% 8.2% 6.8% 4.4% 36.2% 34.7% 30.7%
Avg Price 6.2 6.08 4.6 12.25 12.35 13.00 7.30 7.25 6.10

World Supply/Demand Summary

World S&D Summary, May 10, 2012, Million Metric Tons

Corn Soybeans Wheat
Crop Year 11-12 11-12 12-13 11-12 11-12 12-13 11-12 11-12 12-13
Report Date 10-Apr 10-May 10-May 10-Apr 10-May 10-May 10-Apr 10-May 10-May
Carryin 125.02 124.43 127.56 69.12 70.1 53.24 198.72 196.74 197.03
Production 864.97 870.45 945.78 240.15 236.87 271.42 694.32 694.64 677.56
Tot. Supply 989.99 994.88 1073.34 309.27 306.97 324.66 893.04 891.38 874.59
Feed 509.03 508.48 549.54 137.89 147.64 133.7
Crush 223.3 224.11 234.22
Other 358.26 358.84 371.47 29.9 30.03 30.92 548.87 546.71 552.77
Total Use 867.29 867.32 921.01 253.2 254.14 265.14 686.76 694.35 686.47
End Carryout 122.71 127.56 152.34 55.52 53.24 58.07 206.27 197.03 188.13
Stocks/Use Rat 14.1% 14.7% 16.5% 21.9% 20.9% 21.9% 30.0% 28.4% 27.4%

World Highlights

•World corn ending stocks were increased by nearly 5 MMT resulting in an increase in stocks-to-use, now projected at 14.7% for the current marketing year.

•The initial stocks-to-use estimate of world corn for the ‘12/‘13 marketing year came was estimated at 16.5%.

•World soybean ending stocks were reduced slightly for the current marketing year and were indicated to be unchanged for the ‘12/‘13 marketing year.

•World wheat ending stocks were reduced from the April estimate with stocks-to-use revisions being made downward for the current and next marketing years.

Market Strategy
This report is viewed as bearish for corn, bullish for soybeans, and neutral for wheat. Outside market forces and weather developments will drive these markets until the release of the June 30 actual plantings report. Although preliminary, the markets will trade these estimates for the ‘12/‘13 marketing year until adjustments are made. On today’s open, Dec ‘12 corn futures are $5.10; Nov ‘12 soybeans are $13.60; and July ‘12 SRW wheat is at $5.99 per bushel.

For technical assistance on making grain marketing decisions contact Carl L. German, Extension Crops Marketing Specialist.