Carl German, Extension Crops Marketing Specialist; clgerman@udel.edu
August USDA Supply and Demand Report Highlights
USDA’s August report came as a major shock to the commodity markets this morning. 2011 U.S. corn and soybean production estimates were cut significantly, which were somewhat offset by sizeable reductions in use for both corn and soybeans. In spite of the domestic use and export cuts, ending stocks for both U.S. corn and soybeans were reduced. Outside market forces remain a major concern for commodity prices. In the event that the commodity markets break out, rallying to the upside, opportunities will be available for advancing sales. It is important to note that world ending stocks were increased for the current marketing year for corn soybeans and all wheat. The increase in world ending stocks and the negative impact of outside market forces could lead to a short lived/term rally. In overnight e-trade, Dec ‘11 corn futures closed at $6.91; Nov ‘11 soybeans at $13.13; and July ‘12 SRW wheat at $7.82 per bushel. In today’s trade new crop corn opened up the limit with soybeans and SRW wheat trading double digit gains.
U.S. CROP PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2011-2012
|
Aug |
Avg. |
High |
Low |
July |
2010-11 |
|
| Corn |
12,914 |
13,082 |
13,410 |
12,775 |
13,470 |
12,447 |
| Soybeans |
3,056 |
3,187 |
3,590 |
3,115 |
3,225 |
3,329 |
| Grain Sorghum |
241 |
291 |
299 |
283 |
300 |
345 |
| All Wheat |
2,077 |
2,079 |
2,134 |
2,026 |
2,106 |
2,208 |
| All Winter |
1,498 |
1,491 |
1,550 |
1,429 |
1,492 |
1,485 |
| Spring |
522 |
541 |
560 |
490 |
551 |
616 |
| Durum |
57 |
61 |
65 |
56 |
64 |
107 |
U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2011-2012
|
Aug |
Avg |
High |
Low |
July |
2010-11 |
|
| Corn |
153.0 |
155.6 |
158.0 |
152.1 |
158.7 |
152.8 |
| Soybeans |
41.4 |
42.8 |
43.4 |
42.0 |
43.4 |
43.5 |
| Grain Sorghum |
54.8 |
64.0 |
65.0 |
63.0 |
65.4 |
71.8 |
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2011-2012
|
Aug |
Avg |
High |
Low |
July |
|
| Corn |
714 |
741 |
986 |
527 |
870 |
| Soybeans |
155 |
172 |
222 |
110 |
175 |
| Grain Sorghum |
22 |
24 |
29 |
20 |
27 |
| Wheat |
671 |
671 |
762 |
629 |
670 |
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2010-2011
|
Aug |
Avg |
High |
Low |
July |
2009-10 |
|
| Corn |
940 |
923 |
1,005 |
880 |
880 |
1,708 |
| Soybeans |
230 |
223 |
235 |
200 |
200 |
151 |
| Grain Sorghum |
27 |
28 |
31 |
25 |
27 |
41 |
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (Million Metric Tons)
|
2011-2012 |
2010-2011 |
||||
|
Aug |
Avg |
July/ Aug |
Avg |
July |
|
| Wheat |
188.87 |
182.75 |
182.19/191.74 |
189.20 |
190.00 |
| Corn |
114.53 |
114.07 |
115.66/122.93 |
113.61 |
120.88 |
| Soybeans |
60.95 |
61.82 |
61.97/68.42 |
66.46 |
65.88 |
WORLD PRODUCTION (Million Metric Tons)
|
2011-2012 |
2010-2011 |
|||
|
Aug |
July |
Aug |
July |
|
| Canada wheat |
21.5 |
21.5 |
23.2 |
23.2 |
| Australia wheat |
25.0 |
25.0 |
26.0 |
26.0 |
| Argentine corn |
26.0 |
26.0 |
22.0 |
22.0 |
| Brazil corn |
57.0 |
55.0 |
55.0 |
55.0 |
| Brazil soybeans |
73.5 |
72.5 |
75.5 |
74.5 |
| Argentine soybeans |
53.0 |
53.0 |
49.0 |
49.5 |
For technical assistance on making grain marketing decisions contact Carl L. German, Extension Crops Marketing Specialist.