Carl German, Extension Crops Marketing Specialist; clgerman@udel.edu
Private Forecasts Lower Production Estimates
USDA’s next production forecast won’t be issued until next Thursday, August 11. In the meantime, private forecasters are weighing in with their production estimates for 2011 corn and soybean production. FC Stone projects U.S. corn production at 13.002 billion bushels with a yield estimate of 153.2 bushels per acre and harvested acreage at 84.8 million acres. The Linn Group projects U.S. corn production at 12.775 billion bushels from a yield estimate of 152.1 bushels per acre. In July, USDA projected the nation’s corn crop at 13.470 billion bushels with a yield of 158.7 bushels per acre and 84.9 million acres harvested. Total corn use was projected at 13.5 billion bushels in USDA’s July estimate. Informa is expected to release their production forecasts today.
FC Stone estimated U.S. soybean production at 3.145 billion bushels with a yield of 42.4 bushels per acre and harvested acreage at 74.2 million. The Linn Group projects a yield of 43 bushels per acre and production at 3.148 billion bushels.
USDA Export Sales Report 08/04
Pre-report estimates for weekly export sales of soybeans ranged from 16.5 to 23.9 million bushels. The weekly report showed total old-crop and new-crop export sales of 25.5 million bushels, with old-crop cancellations of 14.9 million bushels bringing the yearly total to 1.531 billion bushels, above USDA’s demand projection of 1.52 billion bushels. Total shipments of 7.5 million bushels were below the 16.4 million bushels needed this week. This report should be considered bearish.
Pre-report estimates had weekly corn export sales at 33.5 to 43.3 million bushels. The weekly report showed total old-crop and new-crop export sales of 28.6 million bushels, with old-crop sales of 11.7 million bushels, above the 3.7 million bushels needed this week to stay on pace with USDA’s demand projection of 1.875 billion bushels. Total shipments of 30.6 million bushels were below the 47.8 million bushels needed this week. This report should be considered bearish.
Pre-report estimates for wheat ranged between 12.9 to 18.4 million bushels. The weekly report showed total export sales of 18.4 million bushels, above the 17.3 million bushels needed this week to stay on pace with USDA’s 1.15 billion bushel demand projection. Total shipments of 17.4 million bushels were below the 22.1 million bushels needed this week. This report should be considered neutral-to-bearish.
Market Strategy
If ever there were a time when a mixed bag of factors were impacting the commodity markets then that time is now. ‘Turn around Tuesday’ saw a sharp double digit rally in corn and soybean futures only to be quickly eroded due to improving weather conditions and worsening financial news from around the world, reflected in a stronger dollar and a weakening DJIA. The University of Illinois released a report this week that suggests that U.S. corn and soybean stocks could rise in the September report due to slackening demand. Just think what might happen to prices in the event that stocks are revised upward and USDA’s August report comes close to their July estimates? For those needing to make additional sales, now is a good time to advance sales on new crop corn and soybeans. Before the day trade open, Dec ‘11 corn futures are at $7.13; Nov ‘11 soybean futures at $13.73; and July ‘12 SRW wheat at $8.07 per bushel.
For technical assistance on making grain marketing decisions contact Carl L. German, Extension Crops Marketing Specialist.