Carl German, Extension Crops Marketing Specialist; clgerman@udel.edu
Weekly U.S. Crop Conditions Decline
USDA’s weekly crop progress report released on Monday afternoon reflected a decline in U.S. corn and soybean conditions. The decline in condition ratings was not expected for this week’s report, which reflected crop conditions for the week ending July 17. However, it would be surprising not to expect a further decline in crop conditions in the report to be released next Monday afternoon. If a decline in crop conditions materializes in next Monday’s report then that may well set the stage for an extended rally. The conditions report will be released on Monday afternoon just ahead of a ‘turn-around’ Tuesday. The dry conditions across the Corn Belt imply that we should see another leg up based upon the possibility that USDA could reduce their yield estimates in the August supply and demand report.
For more see:
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProg/CropProg-07-18-2011.pdf
USDA Export Sales Report; Week Ending July 14
Export sales for U.S. soybeans, corn, and wheat were all down from the previous week and the four week average. Pre-report estimates for weekly export sales of soybeans ranged from 14.7 to 20.2 million bushels. The weekly report showed total old-crop and new-crop export sales of 16.3 million bushels, with old-crop sales of 9.4 million bushels bringing the yearly total to 1.545 billion bushels, above USDA’s demand projection of 1.52 billion bushels. Total shipments of 5 million bushels were below the 13.8 million bushels needed this week. This report should be considered slightly bearish.
Pre-report estimates had weekly corn export sales at 35.4 to 55.1 million bushels. The weekly report showed total old-crop and new-crop export sales of 34.3 million bushels, with old-crop sales of 16.9 million bushels, above the 6.5 million bushels needed this week to stay on pace with USDA’s demand projection of 1.875 billion bushels. Total shipments of 36.4 million bushels were below the 45.3 million bushels needed this week. This report should be considered slightly bearish.
Pre-report estimates for wheat ranged between 11 to 18.4 million bushels. The weekly report showed total export sales of 12.7 million bushels, below the 17.2 million bushels needed this week to stay on pace with USDA’s 1.15 billion bushel demand projection. Total shipments of 17.8 million bushels were below the 21.9 million bushels needed this week. This report should be considered bearish.
Market Strategy
Before the open, new crop Dec ‘11 corn futures are $6.77; Nov ‘11 soybeans $13.84; with Dec ‘11 SRW wheat futures at $7.35 per bushel. It appears to be advisable to place additional sales decisions on hold for new crop corn and soybeans. There is a good possibility that the next leg up in commodity prices could occur in anticipation of reductions being made to 2011 U.S. corn and soybean production.
For technical assistance in making grain marketing decisions contact Carl L. German, Extension Crops Marketing Specialist.