Carl German, Extension Crops Marketing Specialist; clgerman@udel.edu
July USDA Domestic S&D Summary
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
US Supply/Demand Estimates 7/12 (million bushels)
|
Corn |
Soybeans |
Wheat |
|||||||
| Crop Year | 10-11 | 11-12 | 11-12 | 10-11 | 11-12 | 11-12 | 10-11 | 11-12 | 11-12 |
| Report Date | 07/12 | 06/09 | 07/12 | 07/12 | 06/09 | 07/12 | 07/12 | 06/09 | 07/12 |
| Carryin |
|
1,708 |
730 |
880 |
151 |
180 |
200 |
976 |
809 |
| Production |
12,447 |
13,200 |
13,470 |
3,329 |
3,285 |
3,225 |
2,208 |
2,058 |
2,106 |
| Imports |
30 |
20 |
20 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
100 |
110 |
100 |
| Total Supply |
14,185 |
13,950 |
14,370 |
3,495 |
3,480 |
3,440 |
3,284 |
2,977 |
3,067 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Feed |
5,000 |
5,000 |
5,050 |
|
|
|
135 |
220 |
220 |
| Crush/mill* |
1,350 |
1,375 |
1,370 |
1,650 |
1,655 |
1,655 |
930 |
945 |
945 |
| Ethanol Prod. |
5,050 |
5,050 |
5,150 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Seed/other |
30 |
30 |
30 |
125 |
115 |
115 |
73 |
75 |
82 |
| Exports |
1,875 |
1,800 |
1,900 |
1,520 |
1,520 |
1,495 |
1,286 |
1,050 |
1,150 |
| Total Use |
13,305 |
13,255 |
13,500 |
3,295 |
3,290 |
3,264 |
2,423 |
2,290 |
2,397 |
| Carryout |
880 |
695 |
870 |
200 |
190 |
175 |
861 |
687 |
670 |
| Stocks/Use Rat |
6.6% |
5.2% |
6.4% |
6.1% |
5.8% |
5.4% |
35.5% |
30.0% |
28.0% |
| Avg Price |
5.25 |
6.50 |
6.00 |
11.35 |
14.00 |
13.00 |
5.70 |
7.70 |
7.30 |
*Excludes corn for ethanol
The report should be viewed as neutral to bullish for corn and wheat, neutral to bearish for beans.
Concerning new-crop corn production, the 270 million bushel increase in production was largely offset by a 245 million bushel increase in demand. All wheat production came in 35 million bushels above the pre-report estimate, though this was offset by a 100 million bushel increase in exports, resulting in ending stocks decreasing 17 million bushels from last month. Old-crop ending stocks of soybeans increased 20 million bushels from last month due to a decrease in exports while new-crop stocks fell less than expected to 175 million bushels.
This report will be quickly discounted due to the need to resurvey planted acreage in selected states. Additionally, outside market forces are currently influencing commodity trading more than fundamental factors. Financial problems in Europe continue to plague these markets.
The weekly crop progress report did not contain any information out of the ordinary.
July USDA World S&D Summary
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
World S&D Summary (million metric tons)
|
Corn |
Soybeans |
Wheat |
|||||||
| Crop Year |
10-11 |
11-12 |
11-12 |
10-11 |
11-12 |
11-12 |
10-11 |
11-12 |
11-12 |
| Report Date |
07/12 |
06/09 |
07/12 |
07/12 |
06/09 |
07/12 |
07/12 |
06/09 |
07/12 |
| Carryin |
143.63 |
117.44 |
120.88 |
59.35 |
64.53 |
65.88 |
198.29 |
187.12 |
189.97 |
| Production |
820.02 |
866.18 |
872.39 |
263.69 |
262.79 |
261.45 |
648.21 |
664.34 |
662.42 |
| Total Supply |
963.65 |
983.62 |
993.27 |
323.04 |
327.32 |
327.33 |
846.50 |
851.46 |
852.39 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Feed |
495.10 |
514.35 |
517.30 |
|
|
|
117.33 |
121.67 |
122.96 |
| Crush |
|
|
|
223.81 |
232.90 |
232.35 |
|
|
|
| Other |
347.67 |
357.39 |
360.31 |
30.38 |
30.31 |
30.30 |
539.24 |
545.52 |
547.24 |
| Total Use |
842.77 |
871.74 |
877.61 |
254.19 |
263.21 |
262.65 |
656.57 |
667.19 |
670.20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| End Carryout |
120.88 |
111.89 |
115.66 |
65.88 |
61.59 |
61.97 |
189.97 |
184.26 |
182.19 |
| Stocks/Use Rat |
14.3% |
12.8% |
13.2% |
25.9% |
23.4% |
23.6% |
28.9% |
27.6% |
27.2% |
World ending stocks should be viewed as bearish for corn, neutral for beans and neutral to bullish for wheat.
Time to Watch the Weather
As speculation would have it the ‘weather market’ has arrived in full force. Scattered reports are coming in concerning portions of the Corn Belt that are in trouble due to hot, dry weather. Economic concerns both at home and abroad are simultaneously adding strength to the Dow and weakness to the dollar, making for better U.S. export business. These factors all contribute to the recent run up in commodity prices. The fact that energy prices are bidding up also lends support. USDA’s weekly export sales report released this morning was viewed as neutral for soybeans; neutral to slightly bullish for corn; and neutral to slightly bullish for wheat.
Market Strategy
There are several pending questions concerning 2011 corn and soybean production. Among them, size of production? Pollination, for example, is all over the waterfront in portions of the Corn Belt. This would seem to indicate that we are not likely to see record setting production. This is important in that the size of the crop will affect available supply. We went into this growing season with no room for margin of error and as of mid-July that is still the case. A strong positive impacting these markets right now is the fact that the commercials (end users) are currently bullish. Rumors are abounding concerning the weather and the negative impact upon yield that will surely result. It is advisable to proceed with caution. Currently, Dec ‘11 corn futures are trading at $6.77; Nov ‘11 soybeans at $13.83; and July ‘11 SRW wheat at $7.02 per bushel. Incremental sales would seem advisable for those needing to catch up on making forward cash sales for their 2011 corn and soybean production.