Carl German, Extension Crops Marketing Specialist; clgerman@udel.edu
Markets Expected to Trade Quietly While Awaiting July S&D Report
On next Tuesday, July 12, USDA will release their next round of monthly supply and demand estimates. The July report will be subject for debate until resurvey results are reported in August. The National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) will be resurveying Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota and Minnesota during July. The findings (revised acres) will be reported in the August supply-demand report. The revision isn’t expected to make any difference since most private analytical firms will have their own estimates before that time. Weather now takes the driver’s seat in terms of having the biggest potential impact upon price direction. The forthcoming production forecasts can make or break this market, even from current price levels. Currently, outside market forces are lending support with the Dow and crude oil prices are trading higher.
Weekly export sales were reported to be neutral corn, neutral wheat, and bearish for soybeans. Recent lower prices are expected to pick up the export pace for corn. The Southern Hemisphere production results for 2011 are reported to be slightly over 9% greater than last year. Therefore, soybean exports may not be bullish for U.S. supplies anytime soon. The value of the dollar will determine the pace of wheat exports in the weeks ahead. Currently, Dec ‘11 corn futures are trading at $6.19; Nov ‘11 soybeans at $13.41; July ‘11 SRW wheat at $6.13 per bushel; and Dec ‘11 SRW wheat at $6.66 per bushel.
For technical assistance on making grain marketing decisions contact Carl L. German, Extension Crops Marketing Specialist.