Carl German, Extension Crops Marketing Specialist; clgerman@udel.edu
June 30 U.S. Planted Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks
USDA reported corn planted acres at 92.28 million acres, up 5% from last year. This is the second highest planted corn acreage since 1944, exceeded only once in 2007. This exceeds pre-report trade expectations. Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota, and Minnesota all reported major acreage increases. USDA estimates 84.88 million acres of corn will be harvested, up 3.44 million acres from last year and 92% of planted.
Soybean planted acres were reported to be down 3 % from last year at 75.2 million acres (77.4 million acres were planted last year). Soybean acres were reported to be below trade expectations, on average by about 1.3 million acres. USDA estimates about 74.25 million acres of soybeans will be harvested, down 2.35 million acres from last year.
All wheat planted acres were reported at 56.4 million acres up 5 % from 53.6 million acres planted last year. Although USDA reported planted wheat acres higher than last year, the acreage for harvest is estimated at 47.17 million acres, 463,000 acres less than last year’s harvest.
All cotton, reported at 13.7 million acres, were up 25 % from a year ago. The reported number was slightly higher than pre-report estimates.
U.S. corn stocks in all positions exceeded trade expectations. Soybean and wheat stocks were reported to be within trade estimates. The higher corn stocks are indicative that some rationing has occurred.
Quarterly Grain Stocks
Corn stocks in all positions on June 1, 2011 totaled 3.67 billion bushels, down 15% from the same time last year. On-farm stocks are down 21% from last year, at 1.68 billion. Off-farm stocks, at 1.99 billion, down 9%. The March-May indicated disappearance is 2.85 billion bushels, compared with 3.38 billion last year. The stocks estimate was higher than trade expectations, ranging from 2.998 to 3.515 billion bushels.
Soybean stocks are 8% higher than a year ago, at 619 million bushels. On-farm stocks are down 218 million bushels or 6% from last year. Off-farm stocks, at 401 million bushels, are up 19% from a year ago. Soybean stocks were reported to be within the range of trade expectations.
All wheat stocks totaled 861 million bushels, down 12% from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 131 million bushels, down 38% from last year. Off-farm stocks at 730 million bushels are down only 5% from last year. Wheat stocks were within pre-report trade expectations, ranging from 791 to 878 million bushels.
ACREAGE (million acres)
| 6/30/11 | Average | High | Low | USDA WASDE 6/9/11 | USDA Final 2010 | |
| Corn | 92.3 | 90.77 | 91.50 | 89.50 | 90.70 | 88.19 |
| Soybeans | 75.2 | 76.53 | 77.19 | 75.50 | 76.61 | 77.40 |
| All Wheat | 56.4 | 56.67 | 57.60 | 55.00 | 57.70 | 53.60 |
| Spring | 13.6 | 13.35 | 13.90 | 12.50 | 14.43 | 13.70 |
| Durum | 1.7 | 2.03 | 2.80 | 1.31 | 2.37 | 2.57 |
| Grain Sorghum | 4.6 | 5.61 | 5.64 | 5.58 | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| All Cotton | 13.7 | 13.26 | 14.21 | 12.55 | 12.57 | 10.97 |
QUARTERLY STOCKS (billion bushels)
| 6/1/11 | Average | High | Low | 3/1/11 | 6/1/10 | |
| Corn | 3.67 | 3.302 | 3.515 | 2.998 | 6.523 | 4.310 |
| Soybeans | 0.619 | 0.596 | 0.632 | 0.549 | 1.249 | 0.571 |
| Wheat | 0.861 | 0.826 | 0.878 | 0.791 | 1.425 | 0.973 |
| Grain Sorghum | 0.080 | 0.086 | 0.092 | 0.080 | 0.171 | 0.088 |
| Corn | 3.67 | 3.302 | 3.515 | 2.998 | 6.523 | 4.310 |
Market Strategy
The initial reaction to this report is likely to be considered negative, with corn possibly moving limit down. Meanwhile, there isn’t much help coming from outside market forces. Further, the weekly export sales report, released this morning for the week ending June 23, was bearish for soybeans, neutral for corn and wheat. Market attention will now turn to the weather and crop development. Before the open, Dec ‘11 corn futures are $6.50; Nov ‘11 soybean futures $13.23; with July ‘11 SRW wheat at $6.41 per bushel.
For technical assistance on making grain marketing decisions contact Carl L. German, Extension Crops Marketing Specialist.