Nate Bruce, Farm Business Management Specialist, nsbruce@udel.edu
Written 1/20/2026
Grain markets have had a rough start to 2026 due to a bearish USDA World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report (WASDE) and Grain Stocks report. Corn prices were most impacted by the January reports with futures tumbling $0.15 – $0.30 from where they started the year at. The reports solidified how large the domestic corn crop truly was in the 2025/2026 marketing year. The February report typically does not differ significantly to the January reports meaning unless any major bullish surprises happen, the average December corn price in February that is used for crop insurance guarantees could remain low for the upcoming crop year. It is possible the insurance safety net for corn may be significantly reduced for this upcoming crop year. The report did have one silver lining regarding the corn market and that was US corn exports are way up on large domestic supply. In addition, the US dollar has been weakening which makes US corn more desirable in the world export market. Currently the world stocks to use ratio has been dropping since the 2016/2017 marketing year meaning the world is need of corn. The question on corn US exports is whether there is enough momentum with a weakening US dollar to increase futures while offsetting stable domestic
demand. The domestic stocks to use ratio for corn established in the January report is currently 13.6%. Corn prices tend to increase when the stock to use ratio is below 10% meaning lower corn prices could be here for a while on large stocks unless demand increases. With lower corn prices potentially here to stay for a while, the need to develop crop budgets and focus on profitable bushels is going to be important in the 2026/2027 marketing year. Soybean futures fell after the WASDE was released but have regained lost momentum trading in the past week on China fulfilling its 12-million-ton US soybean purchase pledge. China has effectively covered its soybean import demand until March with the South American export window opening the next month in April. Soybean acres during the 2024/2025 marketing year were significantly down. Decent insurance guarantees established in February could certainly see the pendulum swing for the 2025/2026 marketing year with the March 31st Prospective Plantings Report potentially moving soybean futures if this holds true. Soybean futures have traded in a $0.05 – $0.15 range thus far in January. As seen over the course of the last year, market volatility is still very evident in the soybean market. It might be wise to take a market position before the South American export window opens and Prospective Plantings is released. Wheat prices have been in retreat since November when the first WASDE report after the fall government shutdown was released. The story of the wheat market both domestically and globally are large supplies outpacing demand. Global wheat growing season issues do not impact markets like they’ve done in the past due to large supplies. Wheat futures have traded in a $0.05 – $0.15 range thus far in January. With wheat production expenses occurring right around the corner, it is important to evaluate all expenses and evaluate the best marketing strategy to ensure growing wheat is profitable.
The January USDA WASDE was published on January 12th. Below are the estimates for corn, soybeans and wheat. The next USDA WASDE report will be published on February 10th.
Corn
The report called for larger domestic corn production, higher feed and residual use, reduced food, seed, and industrial use, and greater ending stocks. Total corn acres for the 2025/2026 marketing year increased from 98.7 million acres from 98.8 million acres. Estimated corn acres harvested increased from 90 million acres to 91.3 million acres. Estimated yield harvested per acre increased from 186 bushels per acre to 186.5 bushels per acre. Total production for the 2025/2026 marketing year increased significantly from the December report, from 16,752 million bushels to 17,021 million bushels. Beginning stocks for the 2025/2026 marketing year was estimated at 1,551 million bushels, up 19 million bushels from the December report. Imports remained unchanged from the December report. Total domestic corn supply increased from 18,309 million bushels to 18,597 million bushels on the increases to beginning stocks and total production. Total corn demand increased from 16,280 million bushels to 16,370 million bushels Export and ethanol demand remained unchanged. Feed and residual demand increased from 6,100 million bushels to 6,200 million bushels. Food, seed, and industrial demand fell from the December report from 6,980 million bushels to 6,970 million bushels. Corn ending stocks increased from 2,029 million bushels to 2,227 million bushels. The average farm season price for the 2025/2026 marketing year increased from $4.00 per bushel to $4.10 per bushel. Domestic stocks to use ratio for the January WASDE was 13.6%. Global corn stocks were estimated at 190.0 million tons, up 11.8 million from the December estimate. China recorded a record corn crop at 301.2 million tons and was the main driver for the increase.
Soybeans
The January WASDE estimated increased soybean supplies for the 2025/2026 marketing year on higher beginning stocks and production. Soybean acres planted increased from 81.1 million acres to 81.2 million acres. Soybean acres harvested increased the same, from 80.3 million acres to 80.4 million acres. Estimated yield harvested per acre remained at 53 bushels per acre. Total soybean supply for the marketing year increased from 4,590 million bushels to 4,607 million bushels. Beginning stocks increased from 316 million bushels to 325 million bushels while total production increased from 4,253 million bushels to 4,262 million bushels. Soybean imports were unchanged in the January report. Domestic soybean demand fell from the December estimate from 4,300 million bushels to 4,257 million bushels. Domestic crush demand increased from 2,555 million bushels to 2,570 million bushels. Residual demand also increased from 37 million bushels to 39 million bushels. Soybean export demand fell from the December report from 1,635 million bushels to 1,575 million bushels. Seed demand remained unchanged for the marketing year at 73 million bushels. Soybean ending stocks were estimated to increase in the 2025/2026 marketing year from 290 million bushels to 350 million bushels. The farm season average price for the marketing year fell from the December estimate from $10.50 per bushel to $10.20 per bushel. Domestic stocks to use for soybeans in the January report was 8.2%. The soybean oil price remained unchanged from the December report at $0.53 per pound. The estimated soybean meal price fell from $300 per short ton to $295 per short ton. The 2025/2026 global soybean outlook called for higher production, increased crush demand, lower exports, and higher ending stocks. The Brazilian soybean crop was raised to 178 million tons on beneficial growing conditions.
Wheat
The 2025/2026 domestic wheat outlook is for larger supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and larger ending stocks. Domestic wheat production remained unchanged from the December report at 1,985 million bushels. Wheat imports remained unchanged. Total domestic supply increased from 2,955 million bushels to 2,959 million bushels on a 4 million bushel increase in beginning stocks. Wheat seed demand, feed and residual fell from the December report. Wheat exports remained unchanged at 900 million bushels. Total domestic wheat demand fell from 2,054 million bushels to 2,033 million bushels. Wheat ending stocks increased from 901 million bushels to 926 million bushels. The farm season average price fell from $5.00 per bushel to $4.90 per bushel. Domestic stocks to use for wheat in the January report was 45.5%. The global wheat outlook for the 2025/2026 marketing year called for larger supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks. Global wheat supplies were raised 4.3 million tons to 1,102.2 million.
Brazil’s soybean crop for the 2025/2026 crop season is projected to be a 3.5 % increase from the 2024/2025 season at 121 million acres. Thus far, the weather has been ideal for the Brazilian soybean crop to reach its full potential, possibly setting a record-breaking crop of 183.8 million metric tons. The Brazilian soybean harvest has just begun in recent weeks for the countries export window to open in April. In nearby Argentina, the corn and soybean crops are at risk due to less-than-ideal weather occurring. Unlike in Brazil, Argentina is experiencing a significant drought, despite high preseason production estimates. Argentinian soybean exports are projected to increase 5% this year and will be the highest exports since the 2019/2020 marketing year if the crop pans out. China ramped up soybean purchases from Argentina this past year when the country slashed export taxes to boost sales.
Corn Futures
Soybean Futures
Wheat Futures
