Monthly Grain Market Outlook | Weekly Crop Update

Nate Bruce, Farm Business Management Specialist, nsbruce@udel.edu

For the most part, grain markets during the month of October have experienced a sort of lull in price movement. Mixed reports on corn and soybean yields out of the Corn Belt and uncertainty on how big the crops truly are without any United States Department of Agriculture World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report available due to the governmental shutdown had kept volatility in the markets at bay for the majority of the month. That is until October 27^th when the corn, soybean, and wheat futures rallied significantly after the United States Secretary of Treasury, Scott Bessent announced that China will be making substantial purchases of US soybeans during trade discussions. This rallied the markets across the board. Up until this point, China had pledged to purchase no US soybeans, which dampened prices despite tight domestic supply and demand. Corn futures have traded in a $0.20 – $0.30 range throughout the month depending on the futures. Corn harvest is underway throughout the country and reports are scattered on how large the corn crop will truly be this year. The last USDA WASDE report estimated the average yield will be 186.7 bushels per acre, down from the bearish August estimate of 188.8 bushels per acre. If the yield is truly 180 or 182 per acre, corn prices could certainly move due to a lower expected domestic supply. Soybean prices jumped to their highest price point in October after the announcement that a trade deal with China would entail US soybean exports. Soybeans have been trading in a $0.10 – $0.25 range throughout the month of October. As mentioned in other Monthly Grain Market Updates, domestic supply and demand is tight and has little room for margins of error. The announcement about China coming back to the export market could have a significant impact on soybean prices. Wheat prices were also propped up by the trade news despite a significant market carryover of 895 million bushels. It has been difficult to be bullish on the wheat market with this kind of market carry and very little change in wheat demand. Wheat futures have traded in a $0.05 – $0.15 range throughout the month of October. The October USDA WASDE report was supposed to be released on October 9^th but has been suspended due to the government shutdown. The next USDA WASDE report is slated to be released on November 10^th. The fourth and final Grain Marketing Club Meeting will be held on November 5^th from 6:00 – 8:00 PM at the Carvel Research and Education Center in Georgetown Delaware.

Brazil’s 2025/2026 grain planting season has commenced. CONAB, Brazil’s USDA, has set the first outlook for the new crop marketing year and is predicting and increase in total planted area from the 2024/2025 crop marketing year. Project Brazilian planted soybean acreage is expected to reach an all-time high of 121 million acres in 2025/2026 due to increased export demand, driven primarily by Chinese South American imports. In addition to increases in soybean acres, projections also call for an increase in corn acres, driven on greater domestic biofuel demand. Corn exports from Brazil could also increase on a large corn supply in 2025/2026. Argentina eliminated export taxes on all grains to incentivize exports. The Argentine economy has faced uncertainty, and the move was made to generate revenue dollars. The export duties were suspended until October 31^st or until a revenue target of US $7 billion was achieved.