Monthly Garin Market Outlook | Weekly Crop Update

Nate Bruce, Farm Business Management Specialist, nsbruce@udel.edu

Grain markets saw considerable price movement in the month of September after hitting seasonal lows in August. Despite the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasting a record corn crop for the 2025/2026 marketing year, corn markets have rallied on skepticism from traders on whether or not the crop will be as large as USDA projects. December corn rallied nearly $0.30 over the month, trading near $4.30 per bushel in September. Considering where the market was a month ago, this was an unforeseen but favorable market reversal. Some areas in the corn belt had some late-season weather woes such as abnormally dry conditions. What kind of corn crop is in the fields is truly unknown until the combines start rolling and this uncertainty has driven corn prices higher than the bottom seen after the August USDA World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was published. USDA is still projecting the highest corn carryover in seven years, but corn export demand is currently strong. Thankfully yields on the eastern shore have been good. Keep an eye out on marketing opportunities as we continue deeper into harvest season as the size of the national corn crop becomes clearer in the months ahead. Soybeans also rallied significantly during the month of September but have retreated in recent weeks due to uncertainties surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations. U.S. soybean exports are down 36% year-over-year in September, hitting a 17 – year low for this time of the year. Weather conditions locally were not ideal for finishing soybeans with many areas experiencing a dry stretch when water was needed for pod fill. Still yet, the US balance sheet has been tight all year on soybeans. If yields are less than what is being forecasted, a market reversal could occur, especially if there is any increase in export soybeans. Keep an eye on the soybean market as we head further into harvest season. Wheat markets rallied across futures in Mid-September but have retreated as the month progressed. The trend on wheat prices has been down the entire 2025/2026 marketing year thus far with intermittent rallies occurring based on market speculation. Strong wheat supplies in exporting countries such as Russia, India, and the European Union are suppressing the market. There are ample wheat supplies both domestically and globally and that is the main factor driving wheat prices down all year.

The September USDA WASDE report was published on September 12^th. The US corn outlook for the 2025/2026 marketing year from the September report estimated increased supplies, greater exports, and a reduction in ending stocks. Estimated corn acres planted increased to 98.7 million acres from 97.3 acres harvested. Estimated corn acres harvested also increased, from 88.7 million acres to 90 million acres. The forecasted corn yield for the marketing year fell from the August estimate dropping down to 186.7 bushels per acre from 188.8 bushels per acre. Beginning stocks and production both increased in the September estimate with imports remaining unchanged. Total domestic corn supply was forecasted to increase from 16,742 million bushels to 16,814 million bushels. Forecasted domestic demand remained relatively unchanged except for an increase in corn exports. Total domestic demand increased from the August report from 15,955 million bushels to 16,055 million bushels. Ending stocks decreased from 2,117 million bushels to 2,110 million bushels. The farm season average farm price remained unchanged at $3.90 per bushel. World corn ending stocks are projected lower from the August report with cuts in production for the European Union and Russia. The US soybean outlook for the 2025/2026 marketing year from the September report estimated higher production, higher crush, lower exports, and higher ending stocks compared to last month. Estimated soybean acres planted increased from 80.9 million acres to 81.1 million acres. Estimated soybean acres harvested increased slightly from 80.1 million acres to 80.3 million acres. The forecasted yield harvested per acre fell slightly from 53.6 bushels per acre to 53.5 bushels per acre. Beginning stocks and imports remained unchanged from the August estimate. Total production increased, resulting in total domestic supply increasing from 4,292 million bushels to 4,301 million bushels. Crushing demand, seed demand, and residual demand all increased but were offset by a decrease in export demand. Total soybean domestic demand fell by 1 million bushels from 4,352 million bushels to 4,351 million bushels. Ending stocks were projected to increase from the August estimate from 290 million bushels to 300 million bushels. The average farm season price fell from $10.10 per bushel to $10.00 per bushel. The soybean oil price remained unchanged from the August estimate at $0.53 per pound. The soybean meal price also remained unchanged at $280 per ton. The global soybean supply and demand forecasts include lower beginning stocks, lower production, lower crush, higher exports, and reduced ending stocks. The US wheat outlook for the 2025/2026 marketing year from the September report did not change significantly from the August report. Total wheat supplies remained unchanged at 2,898 million bushels for the marketing year. Domestic wheat demand did not change and remained at 1,154 million bushels. Wheat exports increased from 875 million bushels to 900 million bushels, increasing domestic wheat demand from 2,029 million bushels to 2.054 million bushels. The forecasted average farm season price for wheat fell from $5.30 per bushel to $5.10 per bushel. The next USDA WASDE report will be released on October 9^th.

Peak US soybean export season has been bleak at best. The US normally ships a majority of its export soybeans to China between September and January. This is typically well before Brazil’s harvest reaches the export market. Trade talks have stalled between the US and China and soybean markets have fell significantly over the course of the month. China’s October soybean demand is covered by nearly 95% of South American soybeans. US soybeans are slightly cheaper for the September-October export window than Brazilian soybeans, but Chinese tariffs on US imports make them more expensive than Brazilian soybean imports. Chinese agricultural imports will certainly be center stage in any future US – China trade negotiations. The world’s top wheat exporting country, Russia, is looking at new ways to circumnavigate trade restrictions for wheat exports. The country has experienced sluggish wheat exports as traders have looked to use the old-fashioned barter system to increase wheat exports. Foreign trade barter transactions allow for the exchange of goods and services with foreign companies without the need for international transactions and can be utilized during sanctions restrictions like what is in place from the Russia – Ukraine conflict.