Nate Bruce, Farm Business Management Specialist, nsbruce@udel.edu
Written 8/27/2025
August saw considerable price movement in grain futures, spurred on by the monthly USDA World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the Pro Farmer Tour, and weather-related woes in major grain producing areas. Corn futures dropped to their lowest price point of the year in early August due to an extremely bearish USDA WASDE report, only to rebound where they started at the beginning of the month. The USDA WASDE report estimated a massive corn crop across the US and projected a record average bushel harvested per acre at 188.8. Corn futures dropped $0.10 – $0.15 the day the report was released on August 12th. The low corn prices established by the report saw large volumes of trading and position taking, potentially closing the chapter on the lowest corn prices for the year. Corn prices gradually increased as the month progressed and eventually regained lost ground after the Pro Farmer Tour (August 18th – 21st) estimated the US corn crop at 182.7 bushels per acre, five less than the USDA estimate. The Pro Farmer Tour estimate has historically typically been lower than the USDA estimate and the actual harvest yield per acre has fallen between the two estimates. This trend typically holds true for soybeans as well. Soybean futures jumped in August reaching the highest price point since June. Futures were spurred on by a fairly bullish USDA WASDE that estimated lower production, lower beginning stocks, and lower ending stocks. The margin for error was already tight for soybeans going into August due to significantly lower nationally planted acreage. The soybean stocks to use ratio was 7.1% in the July report and dropped down to 6.7% in the August report. Typically, when the stocks to use ratio is below 10%, producers tend to see favorable price movement due to balance sheet fundamentals. The Pro Farmer Tour estimated the average soybean bushel per acre at 53 which wasn’t far off from the USDA estimate at 53.6. Soybean futures remain elevated from where they began the month at, but recent favorable weather in the Midwest has resulted in prices retreating this week of writing. Looking back at the last 15 years, it is common to see some form of fall harvest season rally in corn and soybean futures. What has occurred during the month in August has certainly set the stage for this to be a possibility as we head into harvest season. The trend for the month with wheat prices has been down, with futures dropping $0.15 – $0.20 over the course of the month. Wheat prices dropped at the start of August due to the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Flour Millings Report dropping domestic demand by 5 million bushels on August 1st. Wheat futures were never able to recover price losses during the remainder of the month, despite a lower-than-expected Russian wheat harvest occurring.
The August USDA WASE report was published on August 12th. The US corn outlook for the 2025/2026 marketing year from the August report estimated significantly higher supplies, greater domestic use and exports, and larger ending stocks. Estimated corn acres planted increased from 95.2 million acres to 97.3 million acres. Estimated corn acres harvested for the marketing year increased from 86.8 million acres to 88.7 million acres. Estimated corn yield harvested per acre increased substantially from 181 bushels per acre to 188.8 bushels per acre. Total production increased from 15,705 million bushels to 16,742 million bushels. Total domestic corn supply increased by slightly over 1000 million bushels, despite reducing beginning stocks. Total corn demand increased from 15,410 million bushels to 15,955 million bushels primarily driven on lower expected corn prices with demand increases in exports, feed and residual uses, food and seed demand, and ethanol demand. Corn ending stocks for the 2025/2026 marketing year were estimated to increase from 1,660 million bushels to 2,117 million bushels. If realized, corn ending stocks will be the highest since the 2018/2019 marketing year. The average farm season bushel price fell from the July estimate of $4.20 to $3.90. Global corn beginning stocks were lowered in the August report, but total production, demand, exports, and ending stocks were increased. The August USDA WASDE estimated lower soybean beginning stocks, production, and ending stocks. Estimated soybean acres planted fell from 83.4 million acres to 80.9 million acres while acres harvested fell from 82.5 million acres to 80.1 million acres. Estimated harvested yield per acre increased slightly from 52.5 bushels per acre to 53.6 bushels per acre. Beginning stocks and total production were both reduced for the 2025/2026 marketing year, dropping total domestic supply from 4,705 million bushels to 4,642 million bushels. Total domestic soybean demand fell from the July report with reductions in export demand and residual demand. Crushing and seed demand remained unchanged from the July report. Soybean ending stocks for the 2025/2026 marketing year fell from 310 million bushels to 290 million bushels. The average farm season price remained the same as the July estimate at $10.10 per bushel. The soybean oil price remained unchanged from the July report at $0.53 per pound. The soybean meal price fell from $290 per short ton to $280 per short ton. Global soybean beginning stocks were estimated to increase slightly from the July report. Global production, imports, domestic demand, exports, and ending stocks all fell from the July report. Global domestic crush demand remained unchanged from the July estimate. Global wheat beginning stocks, production, domestic feed demand, total demand, and ending stocks all fell from the July report. Global wheat imports and exports increased in the August report. The August outlook for the 2025/2026 marketing year called for tighter US domestic wheat supplies, reduced domestic use, higher exports, and smaller ending stocks. Estimated area wheat area planted was slightly changed from 45.5 million acres to 45.4 million acres. The estimated are harvested remained the same at 36.6 million acres. Estimated yield harvested per acre was increased slightly to 52.7 bushels per acre. Total wheat supply for the marketing year fell slightly due to a decrease in total production. Beginning stocks and imports remained the same. Wheat seed demand, and residual demand all remained the same as in the July estimate. Food demand slightly decreased, reducing total domestic demand. Wheat exports increased substantially from 850 million bushels to 875 million bushels. Total wheat use for the 2025/2026 marketing year increased from 2,009 million bushels to 2,029 million bushels. Estimated ending stocks fell from 890 million bushels to 869 million bushels. The projected farm season average bushel price was also reduced from $5.40 per bushel to $5.30 per bushel. The next USDA WASDE will be released on September 12th. The September WASDE report is a typically a market mover so make sure to pay attention to markets around its publication.
The wheat harvest in Russia, the world’s top wheat exporter, is experiencing a slight decrease from last years total production due to difficult weather conditions. There is expected to be less Russian wheat exports in the global marketplace in 2025. The reduction in in the country’s total wheat supply could create volatility in the global wheat market. Russian grain and fertilizer exports have been one of the major sources of revenue for the country as they were not subjected to Western sanctions. Even before the lower-than-expected wheat harvest, July saw the Russia’s lowest grain exports for that month since 2008. Although the Ukraine / Russia war is built into grain markets at this point, recent negotiations to end the conflict could have an impact on the international global grain market. Meanwhile in South America, producers in Brazil will start to plant soybeans come September. Projections from several consultancy firms estimate the country’s soybean production will grow by 2%-3% from the previous marketing year. However, the rate of planting area expansion has slowed down to the lowest point seen in the last five years. Argentina harvested a record soybean crop in the 2024/2025 marketing year at nearly 50 million tons. Currently corn harvest is near complete and wheat planting has begun. There has been some weather issues in the world’s third largest grain exporter over the course of the production year.
Corn Futures
Soybean Futures
Wheat Futures
