Monthly Grain Market Outlook | Weekly Crop Update

Nate Bruce, Farm Business Management Specialist, nsbruce@udel.edu

Looking back at the last 15 years at grain futures, July is typically on average the month with the lowest corn and soybean prices of the season. It is always impossible to predict where prices will go, but it currently seems like this is the norm for the way 2025 is unfolding. Grain markets rallied upon announcement of a trade deal being reached with Vietnam at the beginning of the month, signaling to traders more deals in important export markets in Southeast Asia were on the way. Since then, markets have been in full retreat. Corn prices are in the weather market period of the season. Weather has been ideal nationally though for corn production. With 5 million more acres on the table, it is difficult at this stage to see corn prices increase unless something really bullish occurs in the market. Corn futures have moved in a small but steady $0.05 – $0.10 range thus far in the month. There have been very few opportunities to price corn thus far this marketing year at a price greater than the 2025 Spring Crop Insurance Price guarantee of $4.70. The margin for error on soybeans is tight this year as there is nearly 4 million less acres planted. One major weather issue or a series of significant trade deals with major soybean importing countries could spark a significant rally. Soybean prices, which are far more impacted by export markets rallied by over $0.20 across futures the day the Vietnam trade deal was announced. At the same token, with all the news on trade deficits and trade deals, the soybean market has not reached its full potential yet this season with market uncertainty. Soybean prices have remained lower than the 2025 Spring Crop Insurance Price guarantee at $10.54. Keep an eye on the news to see if other trade deals with other major soybean export markets such as South Korea, Japan or India come to fruition for a similar market rally allowing for a decent pricing window. Soybean futures have traded in a sizeable $0.05 – $0.25 range thus far this month. With wheat harvest concluding across Delmarva, wheat prices have trended downward over the course of the month with a couple small rallies sprinkled in to keep things interesting. Global wheat production for the 2025/26 is projected to reach a record 808.6 million metric tons according to the USDA but will have a decline in global ending stocks due to lower stocks in Russia and the United States. August and September are two months to watch wheat prices if growing wheat in 2026 is an option being weighed.

The July USDA WASDE (World Agriculture Supply and Demand) report was published on July 11^th. The US corn outlook for the 2025/2026 marketing year from the July report called for slightly smaller supplies, domestic use, and ending stocks. Slight changes were made to domestic production for the marketing year, dropping total acreage planted from 95.3 million acres to 95.2 million acres. Total acres harvested also fell slightly from 87.4 million acres to 86.8 million acres. Total estimated production fell from 15,820 million bushels to 15,705 million bushels. Beginning stocks fell by 25 million bushels from 1,365 million bushels to 1,340 million bushels. Domestic demand fell with a reduction in feed and residual demand with ethanol demand remaining unchanged in the July report. Corn exports were raised in the July report and if realized would be a record high. Estimated yield harvested per acre remained at 181 bushels per acre while the price per bushel remained at $4.20 per bushel. Total foreign corn production was increased in the July report due to greater acreage being planted in Canada and Mexico. Brazil corn yield estimates were raised due to a highly successful safrinha second corn crop. Global corn stocks were lowered by 3.2 million tons, down to 272.1 million tons. The 2025/2026 US balance sheet for soybeans saw lower production, higher crush, reduced exports, and increased ending stocks compared to the June report. Estimated soybean acreage planted fell from 83.5 million acres to 83.4 million. Area harvested fell from 82.7 million acres to 82.5 million acres. Estimated yield harvested per acre remained at 52.5 bushels per acre. Total production for the marketing year fell from 4,340 million bushels to 4,335 million bushels. Soybean crushing demand and export demand fell. Ending stocks increased to 310 million bushels from the June estimate. The average farm season bushel price for soybeans fell from $10.25 to $10.10. Estimated price for soybean oil per pound increased from $0.46 per pound to $0.53 per pound. Soybean meal price fell $310 per ton to $290 per ton. Global soybean supply and demand forecasts for 2025/26 include higher supply, increased crush, lower exports, and higher ending stocks. The US balance sheet for 2025/2026 wheat this month is for increased supplies, unchanged domestic use, higher exports, and lower ending stocks. Estimated wheat acres planted increased slightly from 45.4 million bushels to 45.5 million bushels. Estimated area harvested also increased slightly from 37.2 million acres to 36.6 million acres. Estimated yield harvested per acre increased from 51.6 bushels per acre to 52.6 bushels per acre. Total production for the marketing year increased from 1,921 million bushels to 1,929 million bushels. Beginning stocks also increased from 841 million bushels to 851 million bushels. Domestic demand remained the same with wheat exports increasing by 25 million bushels to 850 million bushels. Ending stocks fell from 898 million bushels to 890 million bushels. The farm season average bushel price remained the same at $5.40. The global wheat outlook for wheat is for lower supplies, higher consumption, lower trade, and reduced ending stocks. The next WASDE report will be released on August 12^th. The August WASDE report historically is a market moving report. Expectations for this report will be discussed at the August 6^th Grain Marketing Club Meeting.

The National Supply Company (CONAB), Brazil’s version of USDA, projected the total grain harvest for the 2024-2025 marketing year being 373.68 million tons. This is a 14% increase over the previous marketing years output. The US has imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian agricultural exports that will take effect on August 1, 2025. The protectionist policy could have a profound impact on international grain markets. Although the policy is meant to cripple Brazilian grain exporters, the devaluation of the Brazilian currency will make Brazilian grain exports more competitive in the global export market because they will be cheaper. This could have substantial long-term impacts on US grain export markets. The Ukraine-Russia conflict is built into markets at this point, however as Ukraine’s 2025 grain harvest approaches questions continue about safety of export and supply infrastructure.