Nate Bruce, Farm Business Management Specialist, nsbruce@udel.edu
Any optimism about grain prices in February has been diminished during the month of March thus far. Corn, soybean, and wheat futures have retreated over the course of the month from February highs. Although corn supplies are tight domestically and across the globe, corn futures broke support going into the month of March. Announcements of trade tariffs drove down corn prices from February highs. With the announcement of postponing tariffs on Mexico, corn futures regained some losses but came nowhere near February highs as Mexico is a major US corn export market. Planting season commodity price swings are coming soon, so keep an eye on markets in the next couple of months. With that being said, not only locally is it unusually dry, but also in the corn belt as well. Decent corn pricing opportunities could be a possibility if this trend continues. Corn prices traded in a $0.05 – $0.50 range thus far this month. Soybean prices also broke support driven by announcements of tariffs as well, creating fears of another 2018 situation. Soybean harvest is well underway in South America with government agencies and private companies forecasting 8 billion bushels will be produced across the continent. Like the dry situation here, there are parts of South America that are also dry as well but decent yields in other regions are expected to offset losses. Same with corn, make sure to keep an eye on soybean markets in the coming months as planting commences with potential losses in soybean acreage. Soybean prices have traded in a $0.05 – $0.75 range across futures in March. Just like corn and soybeans, wheat markets have been impacted by tariffs as well, breaking support. Wheat markets regained some losses with the announcement of postponing tariffs on Mexico, which is the top US wheat importer. Wheat markets traded in a volatile $0.05 – $1.00 range across futures thus far in March.
The March USDA (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) report was published on March 11th. The March report did little to change corn projections for the marketing year. Projected corn area planted and harvested remained the same as the February estimate. Yield harvested per acre also remained the same at 179.3 bushels. Beginning stocks remained at 1,763 million bushels. Corn supply and demand remained unchanged from the February report. Ending stocks remained unchanged at 1,540 million bushels. The farm season average corn price remained at $4.35. Brazilian corn exports are down for the marketing year ending in 2025, offsetting an increase from Argentina. Global corn ending stocks are down 1.4 million at 288.9 million tons. Keep an eye on corn estimates in the April report. The March WASDE kept US soybean supply and demand the same as the February report. Area planted and area harvested remained the same. Estimated yield harvested per acre stayed at 50.7 bushels. Ending stocks remained unchanged at 380 million bushels. US soybean oil projections show greater exports and reduced soybean oil used for biofuel. Global soybean supply and use was nearly unchanged from the previous report with minor revisions for certain parts of the globe. The farm season average bushel price for soybeans fell from $10.10 per bushel to $9.95 per bushel. The March WASDE made revisions to the US wheat balance sheet. Production did not change from the February report. Beginning stocks remained at 696 million bushels. Supplies were raised on increased imports, up 10 million bushels to 140 million bushels. Wheat exports were lowered 15 million bushels to 835 million bushels. Ending stocks increased from 794 million bushels to 819 million bushels. The global wheat outlook this month is for larger supplies, reduced trade, higher consumption, and increased ending stocks. The farm season average price bushel fell from $5.55 per bushel to $5.50 per bushel.
Peace negotiations have been underway to end the Russian and Ukrainian conflict. At this point, the conflict is built into commodity markets, but a prompt end could have an impact. Soybean harvest in Brazil is more than halfway completed with safrinha corn planting starting. As mentioned earlier, some areas of Brazil have been dry, slowing down planting progress of safrinha corn. All eyes will be on weather in March and April and how large the safrinha crop will be. China imposed retaliatory tariffs targeting US ag products, making Brazilian grain exports more competitive in the world export market. Argentina experienced a growing season with weather ups and downs as soybean yields are expected to be subpar.
Corn Futures
Soybean Futures
Wheat Futures
