Monthly Grain Market Outlook | Weekly Crop Update

Nate Bruce, Farm Business Management Specialist, nsbruce@udel.edu

January saw significant rallies in corn and soybean prices spurred on by revisions in the monthly USDA (World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) WASDE report. More on this in the next paragraph. In addition, South American production has seen weather challenges thus far in 2025, helping markets. Corn prices have seen an uptrend across futures since 2025 kicked off. The rally has been so significant, that March 2025 corn has seen almost a full $1.00 rally. Corn futures have traded upward in a respectable $0.05 – $0.15 range. Local new corn prices have potential for marketing opportunities above breakeven for dryland acreage, depending on own expenses. With the current USDA revisions, there is certainly upside in the corn market. Make sure to find breakeven in crop budgets to determine profitable sales points in the months ahead before planting. Soybean prices have been a wild but fun ride thus far in January. Soybean prices across futures held in the mid to low $9.00 range prior to January 1^st. They have trended upward since 2025 has kicked off, spurred on bullish news such as South American weather woes, friendly USDA reports, and speculation of reduced trade tariffs by the new administration. Soybean futures have traded in $0.10 – $0.25 range throughout the month. Be mindful of price ranges when setting price targets on soybean contracts. Although the rally has been significant, there is still potential in the market for a downturn. Don’t miss out on excellent pricing opportunities by having too great a price range between sales contracts. Wheat prices have experienced significant price volatility throughout the month but have maintained and upward trend. The market bottom wheat was looking for seems to have been found, the question is how long this uptrend will continue. Wheat price traded in a $0.05 – $0.15 across futures.

The January USDA WASDE report was published on January 10^th, 2025. Estimated planted corn acres dropped from the December estimate from 90.7 million acres to 90.6 million acres. Estimated corn acres harvested increased from 82.7 million acres to 82.9 million acres. The estimated harvested yield per acre fell from 183.1 bushels per acre to 179.3 bushels per acre. Production, feed and residual demand, exports, and ending stocks were all lower than the December estimate. Imports, ethanol demand, and food and seed demand all remained the same. Ending stocks fell from 1,738 million bushels to 1,540 million bushels. The estimated farm season price increased from $4.10 per bushel to $4.25 per bushel on supplies falling below use. The January WASDE left estimated planted soybean acres the same as the December estimate at 87.1 million acres. Estimated soybean acres harvested also fell, from 86.3 million acres to 86.1 million acres. Estimated harvested yield per acre fell from the December report from 51.7 bushels per acre to 50.7 bushels per acre. Beginning stocks, crushings, and export demand all remained unchanged from the December estimate. Estimated production fell from 4,461 million bushels to 4,366 million bushels. Imports and residual demand increased from the December estimate. Ending stocks fell sharply from 470 million bushels to 380 million bushels. The farm season average price remained the same at $10.20 per bushel. The January WASDE did not make any revisions to estimated wheat acres at 46.1 million. Estimated wheat acres harvested also remained the same at 38.5 million acres. The estimated harvested yield per acre remained at 51.2 bushels per acre. Beginning stocks, production, food demand, feed and residual demand, and exports all remained the same as the December estimate. Imports and seed demand all increased. Wheat ending stocks rose from 795 million bushels to 798 million bushels. The farm season average price fell from $5.60 per bushel to $5.55 per bushel. The next USDA WASDE report is scheduled to be released on February 11^th.

The December WASDE did not make any revisions to estimated planted wheat acres at 46.1 million acres. Estimated harvested wheat acres also remained unchanged at 38.5 million acres. Estimated wheat yield per acre remained the same as the November estimate at 51.2 bushels per acre. Beginning stocks, production, and domestic demand all remained unchanged from the November report. Wheat imports and exports both increased from the November estimate. Wheat ending stocks fell from 815 million bushels to 795 million bushels. The average farm season price remained the same at $5.60 per bushel. The next WASDE report will be released on January 10^th.

Chinese soybean processors had prepared to increase purchases of Brazilian soybeans prior to the new administration taking office due to discussions on implementing trade tariffs. The announcement of no immediate trade tariffs in China has been bullish news on soybean prices. Tariffs on Mexico and Canada have been discussed as well and can have an impact on commodity prices. There has been reports of lack of rainfall in significant soybean producing regions of Brazil such as Rio Grande do Sul, Parana, and Mato Grosso do Sul. Overall, though, the countries soybean crop is in decent condition. Argentina is experiencing drought issues as the countries grain exchange has cut its estimates for corn and soybean production for the 2024/2025 marketing year. Rain is in the future forecast, but the grain exchange has already ruled out the possibility of high productivity scenarios.