Monthly Grain Market Outlook | Weekly Crop Update

Nate Bruce, Farm Business Management Specialist, nsbruce@udel.edu

With corn supplies still relatively high, corn demand has recently increased on lower prices. This can be seen in the December USDA report in the next paragraph. It is reasonable to expect the market to continue moving up in the month ahead, despite high supplies that are more than likely built into market prices at this point. December and January were two of the best months to market corn this past year. This pattern could be shaping up again so make sure to keep on eye on corn prices the next two months. Corn prices have traded in a $0.05 – $0.25 range this month across futures. The trend in soybean prices has been down in recent months. The soybean export market window is closing before all emphasis is placed on a significant South American supply becoming available. It is hard to determine if soybean prices have reached a true bottom, but one thing is certain, this soybean markets are prime for buyers and not sellers. Soybean prices have been stagnant trading in a tight $0.05 – $0.15 range this month. That may change soon as the South American crop starts to take shape. Wheat prices have dropped across futures in recent months since peaking in October. The wheat market is currently trying to find a bottom. Wheat prices have traded in a $0.05 – $0.25 range across futures thus far in December.

The December USDA (Word Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) WASDE report was published on December 10^th, 2024. Estimated planted corn acres remained the same as the November estimate at 90.7 million acres. Estimated corn acres harvested also remained the same at 82.7 million acres. The estimated yield harvested per acre remained the same as the November estimate at 183.1 bushels per acre. Beginning stocks, production, imports, and feed demand remained unchanged from the November estimate. Food, seed, and industrial demand, ethanol demand, and exports all increased from the November report. Ending stocks decreased from 1,938 million bushels to 1,738 million bushels. Corn demand has increased slightly on lower prices. The estimated average farm season price remained the same at $4.10 per bushel. The December WASDE left estimated planted soybean acres the same as the November report at 87.1 million acres. Estimated soybean acres harvested also remained the same at 86.3 million acres. The estimated harvested yield per acre also remained unchanged at 51.7 bushels per acre. The December report did not make any revisions to soybeans from the November report. Supply and demand remained unchanged. Estimated soybean ending stocks are projected at 470 million bushels. The estimated farm season average price is projected at $10.20 per bushel. The December WASDE did not make any revisions to estimated planted wheat acres at 46.1 million acres. Estimated harvested wheat acres also remained unchanged at 38.5 million acres. Estimated wheat yield per acre remained the same as the November estimate at 51.2 bushels per acre. Beginning stocks, production, and domestic demand all remained unchanged from the November report. Wheat imports and exports both increased from the November estimate. Wheat ending stocks fell from 815 million bushels to 795 million bushels. The average farm season price remained the same at $5.60 per bushel. The next WASDE report will be released on January 10^th.

Early reports out of South America predict a significant crop of soybeans. CONAB, the Brazilian version of USDA, increased their estimate for soybean output at for the 2024-2025 marketing year at 166.143 million tons. Weather thus far has been favorable for South American producers. One of the biggest questions on ag markets going into 2025 is how the proposed tariffs by the new administration will impact prices. The first China trade war had a $11 billion dollar impact on producers and brought China and Brazil closer together. With discussion of proposed tariffs in the campaign cycle, it will be worth watching in the earliest part of 2025. Corn prices have the potential to be impacted as well by tariffs, as there has been discussion to put tariffs on both Mexico and Canada. This could have a negative impact on US corn exports to Mexico in particular as Mexico has made threats in the past.