Monthly Grain Market Outlook | Weekly Crop Update

Nate Bruce, Farm Business Management Specialist, nsbruce@udel.edu

Corn prices increased at the beginning of October but have fallen across futures in recent weeks as harvest is underway nationwide. Corn futures traded in a $0.10 – $0.30 cent range throughout the month thus far. A recent corn market surprise came in the USDA stocks report on the last day of September. The report estimated .10 billion less bushels than previously expected. This was the main catalyst for the increasing prices to start October. Revisions to corn estimates have the potential to significantly increase corn prices. With corn prices the way they are currently, it is wise to consider 2025 production expenses. Soybean harvest is now well underway across Delmarva. Soybean futures started the month of October off strong but have fallen in stride in the last week with futures trading in the $0.20 – $0.60 range thus far in the month. South American soybeans are being planted this month, driving down soybean prices. Long gone is the local $10.00+ per bushel mark with basis seen in the last couple of weeks. It is likely recent soybean prices reached the high for the time being in the last month, despite the US soybeans becoming more competitive in the export market due to the weakening US dollar. August and September have been two of the best months to market wheat the last several years. With the way prices have looked to kick off the start of October, this seems to be the case again this year as wheat prices have fallen significantly across futures in recent weeks. Futures have traded in the $0.15 – $0.40 range.

The October USDA (World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) WASDE report was published on October 11^th. Estimated planted corn acres remained the same as the September estimate at 90.7 million acres. Corn acres harvested also remained the same at 82.7 million acres. Estimated yield per acre increased from 183.6 bushels to 183.8 bushels. Total production increased from 15,186 million bushels to 15,206 million bushels. Imports, domestic demand, and ethanol demand all remained unchanged from the September estimate. Corn exports increased from 2,300 million bushels to 2,325 million bushels. Beginning stocks decreased from 1,812 million bushels to 1,760 million bushels. Ending stocks decreased from 2,057 million bushels to 1,999 million bushels. The estimated farm season average price remained the same as the September estimate at $4.10. The September report left soybean acres planted unchanged from the September estimate at 87.1 million acres. Estimated soybean acres harvested were also left unchanged at 86.3 million acres. Estimated soybean yield harvested per acre decreased slightly from 53.2 bushels per acre to 53.1 bushels per acre. Imports, crushings, exports, and seed demand all remained unchanged from the September estimates. Residual demand decreased from the September report. Beginning stocks increased from 340 million bushels to 342 million bushels. Ending stocks remained unchanged from the September estimate at 550 million bushels. The average farm season price remained unchanged as well at $10.80 per bushel. The October USDA WASDE estimated decreased wheat acres planted from the September report from 46.3 million acres to 46.1 million acres. Estimated harvested acres increased from 37.9 million acres to 38.5 million acres. Estimated yield harvested per acre dropped from 52.2 bushels per acre to 51.2 bushels per acre. Estimated production fell from 1,982 million bushels to 1,971 million bushels. Imports increased from 105 million bushels to 115 million bushels. Feed and residual demand also increased from 110 million bushels to 120 million bushels. Food demand, seed demand, and exports all remained unchanged from the September report. Wheat beginning stocks fell from 702 million bushels to 696 million bushels. Ending stocks also fell from the September estimate from 828 million bushels to 812 million bushels. The farm season average price did not change from the September estimate at $5.70 per bushel. The next USDA WASDE will be released on November 8^th.

Soybean planting is underway in Brazil and Argentina. Brazil, currently facing a drought situation, is running at a snail’s pace compared to a year ago. Conab, the Brazil’s equivalent of USDA, reported that 5.1% of the projected 117 million acres have been planted. One year ago, this number was slightly above 10%. Brazilian grain shipments have also been impacted by the drought with lower water levels impacting barge traffic. Argentina is forecasted to see their largest expansion of soybean acres in more than a decade for the 2024-2025 planting season. Argentinian producers experienced extreme difficulty last year growing corn and in addition, the weather forecast looks to be more favorable for soybeans moving forward. With soybean supplies potentially increasing, this could have a negative impact on global soybean prices. Especially considering Argentina is the world’s top processed soymeal and oil exporter. The Russian agriculture industry recently held talks with the countries Grain Exporters Union about working on setting price floors for wheat exports. Russia is the world’s top wheat exporter and has near total control over the international wheat market. The country is currently battling a 9% inflation rate and wheat exports had been ramping up in the last two weeks as harvest had been wrapping up. The country could be looking to reduce exports and keep domestic bread prices down.