Nate Bruce, Farm Business Management Specialist, nsbruce@udel.edu
Corn prices may have reached their bottom during the month of September with futures holding steady in the low $4.00 per bushel range. Corn futures traded in the $0.10 – $0.20 cent range throughout the month while harvest is well underway in the Delmarva region. Corn carryover is still high and looms over the market but may be built into current prices at this point. Reports out of the Midwest corn belt show a significant crop with marginal land yielding higher than expected bushels per acre. Even with harvest underway, it might be wise to start looking at corn production expenses for 2025 considering the possibility of a protracted period of lower corn prices. Soybean prices have been fun to watch in the month of September thus far with futures trading in the $0.10 to $0.40 cent range throughout the month. The Midwest is experiencing dry weather currently which is having a negative impact on pod fill. In addition, American soybeans are becoming more competitive in the export market with the US dollar weakening after the federal reserve announced the 0.50 basis rate cut last week and the Brazilian currency rallying against the dollar. Good margins and technical buying have also helped the current uptrend in soybean prices. Regionally, new crop soybeans just made it over the $10.00 per bushel hurdle this week with basis. It will be interesting to see how much staying power is behind this current rally. August and September have been two of the best months to market wheat. This seems to be the case this year as well with wheat futures rebounding in recent weeks. Futures have traded in the $0.15 – $0.35 range. Current wheat prices are encouraging but it is critical to evaluate wheat expenses for the 2024 – 2025 season.
The August USDA (World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) WASDE report was published on September 12th. The report was bearish on corn but anchored down on the August estimates for soybeans and wheat. Estimated planted corn acres remained the same as the August estimate at 90.7 million acres. Corn acres harvested also remained the same at 82.7 million acres. Estimated yield per acre increased from 183.1 bushels to 183.6 bushels. Total production increased from 15,147 million bushels to 15,186 million bushels. Imports, domestic demand, ethanol demand, and exports all remained unchanged from the August estimate. Beginning stocks decreased from 1,867 million bushels to 1,812 million bushels. Ending stocks decreased from 2,073 million bushels to 2,057 million bushels. The estimated farm season average price fell from $4.20 per bushel to $4.10 per bushel. The September report left soybean acres planted unchanged from the August estimate at 87.1 million acres. Estimated soybean acres harvested were also left unchanged at 86.3 million acres. Estimated yield harvested per acre remained the same as the August estimate at 53.2 bushels per acre. Production, imports, crushings, exports, seed and residual demand all remained unchanged from the August estimates. Beginning stocks fell by 5 million bushels from 345 million bushels to 340 million bushels. The report lowered ending stocks from 560 million bushels to 550 million bushels. The average farm season price remained unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. The September USDA WASDE left wheat acres planted the same as the August estimate at 46.3 million acres. Area harvested also remained unchanged at 37.9 million acres. Estimated yield harvested per acre stayed the same as the August estimate at 52.2 bushels per acre. Production, imports, food demand, seed demand, and exports all remained unchanged from the August estimate. Beginning stocks stayed the same as the August estimate at 702 million bushels. Ending stocks also remained unchanged at 828 million bushels. The farm season average price did not change from the August estimate at $5.70 per bushel. The next USDA WASDE will be released on October 11th.
Brazil is still experiencing a significant drought. The drought has resulted in increased export costs as waterways essential for bare shipping capacity have been impacted. Climatically though, Brazil is a country with definite rainy seasons. And although the country is experiencing drought now, the rainy season that occurs in October is right around the corner. China’s economy is experiencing severe stagnation. Chinese Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been behind the government’s target of five percent. The economy has lagged to recover since the Covid pandemic and Chinese consumers have altered purchasing in the country to navigate the difficult economic times. How this will impact agricultural imports has yet to be seen, even after China committed to purchase US soybeans this year. Ukraine has increased agricultural exports despite the war with Russia. Russia struck a civilian grain exporting vessel with a missile recently. The attack was a reminder of the ongoing conflicts impact on the global food supply.
Corn Features
Soybean Features
Wheat Features
