Carl German, Extension Crops Marketing Specialist; clgerman@udel.edu
FC Stone Lowers US corn, Soy Crop Estimates
(Reuters – September 1) – Commodity brokerage firm FC Stone on Wednesday said it cut its estimate of the U.S. 2010 corn crop to 13.195 billion bushels, with an average yield of 162.9 bushels per acre. The figures were down from Stone’s August corn production estimate of 13.430 billion, with a yield of 165.8 bushels per acre. Stone projected the 2010 U.S. soybean crop at 3.390 billion bushels, down from their 3.428 billion bushel estimate made in August. The firm lowered its soybean yield estimate to 43.5 bushels per acre, from 44.0 last month.
The Linn Group released updated production estimates this week with a corn yield of 160.7, which was down 1.4 bushels per acre versus its August estimate. Their updated soybean production estimate was placed at 43.6 bushels per acre, which was an increase of 0.4 bushels per acre versus their August number. Informa will release their September production estimates on Friday.
In August, USDA’s U.S. corn production forecast was placed at 13.365 billion bushels, with an average yield of 165.0 bushels per acre. Their August soybean production forecast was placed at 3.433 billion bushels, based on an average yield of 44.0 bushels per acre.
Hot and dry weather may have taken its toll on potential 2010 U.S. corn and soybean yields. For the week ending August 29, we did see a one point increase in the good and a one point decrease in the excellent categories for U.S. corn, placing the overall rating at 70 percent good to excellent. The weekly crop condition report for soybeans was unchanged from the previous week at 64 percent good to excellent. It is possible that U.S. crop conditions deteriorated further this week. USDA is scheduled to release updated crop production forecasts next Friday, September 10. Any decline in yield potential after September 1 will not be picked up in USDA’s September production forecasts.
Market Strategy
Currently, Dec ‘10 corn futures are trading at $4.46 per bushel; Nov ‘10 soybean futures at $10.08; and July ‘11 SRW wheat at $7.15 per bushel; oil is higher; and the dollar lower. The Dow is currently trading about 300 points higher than last week. World crop production concerns making headlines will continue to influence the commodity markets in the near term. Therefore, any near term improvement in growing conditions could take harvest prices lower.
For technical assistance in making grain marketing decisions contact Carl L. German, Extension Crops Marketing Specialist.