Monthly Grain Market Outlook

Nate Bruce, Farm Business Management Specialist, nsbruce@udel.edu

The trend in new corn prices has been down through the month of November, breaking market support. New corn traded between $5.05 and $4.60 throughout the month. Surprising significant changes to market fundamentals will be the only major driver of corn prices up to this point. Soybean prices have been a wild ride over the course of last month, trading in the $12.50 to $13.90 range. Chinese export demand and concerns about the Brazilian plantings were the primary drivers of soybean prices. Wheat prices trended lower over the course of the month after USDA NASS Flour Milling Products report was released. The report estimated July-September wheat used in milling was the smallest for that quarter since 2014 when USDA NASS began the reporting series. It is not uncommon for wheat prices to decline at this time of year, but the pace has been concerning considering prices the last two years.

The November USDA WASDE estimated increased production, domestic use, exports and ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 15.2 billion bushels, up 170 million from last month on a 1.9-bushel increase in yield to 174.9 bushels per acre. With larger supplies, feed and residual use is raised 50 million bushels to 5.7 billion and corn used for ethanol is raised 25 million bushels to 5.3 billion. Corn exports were raised 50 million bushels to 2.1 billion. With supply rising more than use, corn ending stocks are up 45 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The farm season-average corn price received by producers was lowered by $0.10 per bushel from the October estimate to $4.85 per bushel. The November USDA WASDE estimated increased soybean production and ending stocks. Soybean production is forecast at 4.13 billion bushels, up 25 million from the last estimate. Crush and export demand remained unchanged from the October estimate. Soybean ending stocks are increased to 245 million bushels. The farm season-average soybean price was forecast at $12.90 per bushel, the same as the October estimate. The USDA WASDE estimated increased wheat supplies, decreased domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. The November report increased wheat imports by 10 million bushels compared to the October estimate. A reduction in food use lowered projected reduced total domestic use by 4 million bushels down to 1,155 million bushels. Ending stocks in the report increased to 684 million bushels. The projected farm season-average price was lowered down to $7.20, down $0.10 from the October estimate.

In international grain market news, grain traders are paid close attention to South American planting conditions this past month, particularly in Brazil. Drought conditions delayed soybean planting in the Brazilian region of Mato Grasso. The delayed planting could have a negative impact on the Brazilian second corn crop which accounts for most of the countries corn production. Soybean importers have increased purchases of US soybeans away from South American sources. Particularly, China negotiated grain import agreements with several countries at the tail end of October. Soybean futures increased because of increased Chinese demand. It is likely more US soybeans will be purchased in the future if South American crops underperform. The Ukrainian Infrastructure Ministry has reported 90 ships have left the ports of Odessa since August 8th, exporting 3.3 million tons of agricultural and metal products. Ukrainian exports through the Black Sea continue but alternative export routes, particularly by rail, have increased Ukrainian grain exports since the beginning of the conflict.

Corn Futures

December 2023 Corn futures as of 11-16-2023

March 2024 Corn futures as of 11-16-2023

May 2024 Corn futures as of 11-16-2023

 

Soybean Futures

January 2024 Soybean futures as of 11-16-2023

March 2024 Soybeans futures as of 11-16-2023

May 2024 Soybeans futures as of 11-16-2023

Wheat Futures

December 2023 Wheat futures as of 11-16-2023

March 2024 Wheat futures as of 11-16-2023

July 2024 Wheat futures as of 11-16-2023

 

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