Monthly Grain Market Outlook

Nate Bruce, Farm Business Management Specialist,

A late-month rally spurred on by both the Black Sea grain corridor agreement ending and Russian attacks on Ukrainian grain infrastructure was the main market highlight for July. December corn increased to $5.70 per bushel, prior to retreating to current prices. This was a second fantastic opportunity during the current growing season to catch up on sales if needed. Currently, much of the major corn producing areas in the country are tasseling. All eyes are on weather conditions in the major corn belt states moving into August. Soybean prices soared during the month due to reduced acreage playing into the market, worrying buyers there will be less supply. Wheat prices also made a late-month rally caused by the Black Sea agreement terminating and Russian attacks. New crop wheat prices peaked at $7.88 per bushel, before retreating. As of this writing, new wheat prices have remained above $7.00 per bushel.

The July USDA World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates Report (WASDE) estimated corn ending stocks increasing by 0.22% from the June 2023/24 outlook estimate from 2,257 million bushels to 2,262 bushels due to demand unchanging from the previous estimate. The USDA WASDE report estimated decreased beginning stocks, down by 50 million bushels. Corn production for 2023/24 increased in the July estimate by 1.95% from 15,265 million bushels to 16,742 million bushels. The corn season-average farm price per bushel remained the same at $4.80 per bushel. The June USDA WASDE estimated soybean ending stocks decreasing by 14.29% from the June 2023/24 estimate from 350 million bushels to 300 million bushels. The USDA WASDE report estimated increased beginning stocks from the June 2023/24 outlook estimate. Production, exports, and crushings all decreased from the June report. The soybean season-average farm price per bushel increased from $12.10 per bushel to $12.40. The June USDA World WASDE estimated wheat ending stocks increasing by 5.39% from the June 2023/24 outlook estimate from 562 million bushels to 592 million bushels. Supply increased with increased production offsetting decreased beginning stocks and imports. Wheat demand increased from 1,837 million bushels to 1,857 with increases in domestic demand and feed and residual use. The wheat season-average farm price per bushel decreased by 2.6% from $7.70 per bushel to $7.50.

In international grain market news, since terminating the Black Sea grain corridor agreement, Russian attacks have further crippled alternative grain export routes from Ukraine. Russia made targeted attacks against Ukrainian grain storage infrastructure and ports on the river, Danube. Ukrainian officials stated more than 60,000 tons of grain have been destroyed. This sent the markets soaring during the week. Global grain prices increased by 8% one day after Russia’s pullout from the Black Sea grain corridor. The Ukrainian conflict is still altering the markets significantly. China has begun harvesting grain this past month. The country has produced over 650 million bushels over the last 8 years. However, this year’s wheat harvest has come up short with adverse weather conditions. The forecasted weather for the autumn harvest is not favorable either. About 75% of the countries grain is harvested in the Autumn. If this harvest is also hampered, it could result in China increasing imports. A Brazilian study from the countries Ministry of Agriculture projects Brazil will producer 390 million tons of grain in the next decade. Currently, the country produces 314 million tons. The study stated the main driver for the increase will be soybean, second crop corn, and cotton and higher overall productivity. This would be a 20% increase in Brazil’s soybean production, with the country already accounting for 60% of global soybean exports.

Corn Futures

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Soybean Futures

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Wheat Futures

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