Grain Marketing Hightlights

Carl German, Extension Crops Marketing Specialist;

June 30 Planted Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks Summary

U.S. corn and soybean acreages are up 2 percent from levels a year ago. However, corn planted acreage was reported to be 930,000 acres less than that reported in the March 31 Planting Intentions Report. Soybean planted acreage, reported at 78.87 million acres are about 670,000 acres more than farmers reported on March 31. Since many analysts were expecting an acreage increase for corn, this report is being viewed as friendly to bullish for corn prices, bullish for wheat, and somewhat bearish for soybeans. U.S wheat planted acreage at 54.31 million acres is about 500,000 acres more than reported in March, however, it is just shy of being 5 million acres less than last year.

Quarterly Stocks
U.S. corn stocks were reported at 4.310 billion bushels. Although slightly higher than last year, the number came in lower than the low end of trade expectations. This too is bullish for corn prices. U.S. soybean stocks were reported to be 25 million bushel less than last year and also lower than the low end of trade expectations. This will help to offset any bearishness in the soybean market stemming from the acreage report. U. S. all wheat quarterly stocks were reported to be above the high end of trade expectations and 316 million bushels more than last year at this time. This will offset any bullishness stemming from the acreage report, although this information has been known for some time and wheat prices are more likely to move in sync with the direction of corn.

Market Strategy
We are seeing a positive move in commodity prices in this morning’s trade (6/30/10). The move is likely to be partly due to the report, setting a psychological tone for a rally and partly due to commodity markets being considered oversold. Speculation has it that the tone has also been set for USDA’s July 9 Supply and Demand report where ending stocks for corn and soybeans could be projected to be less than previously expected. The Dow and the dollar are also supportive in this morning’s trade. Currently, Dec ‘10 corn futures are trading at $3.70/ bu., up 26 cents; Nov ‘10 soybean futures are trading at $9.09, down 2 cents; and July SRW wheat futures are trading at $4.64/ bu., up 22 cents from yesterday’s close. 

Acreage (million acres)

  6/30/10 Average High Low USDA 3/31/10 USDA Final 2009
Corn 87.87 89.23 90.15 88.1 88.8 86.5
Soybeans 78.87 78.18 78.9 76.53 78.1 77.5
All Wheat 54.31 53.83 54.09 53.5 53.8 59.13

 Quarterly Stocks (billion bushels)

  6/1/10 Average High Low 3/1/10 6/1/09
Corn 4.31 4.598 4.784 4.459 7.694 4.261
Soybeans 0.571 0.594 0.62 0.58 1.27 0.596
All Wheat 0.973 0.94 0.95 0.929 1.352 0.657