Nate Bruce, Farm Business Management Specialist, nsbruce@udel.edu
Written 12-16-2022
Recent trends in corn prices have been down. Since the beginning of December, corn prices have retreated from the $6.70 range. The market has been impacted by Black Sea shipping routes being open again and weakening export demand. Soybeans have been trading sideways since June and it appears this won’t stop anytime soon. Expect price swings in the $14.00-$15.00 range to continue with support at the $14.00 level. Wheat prices have been in retreat since October with prices now falling below pre-Ukrainian invasion levels. Some of the initial reported crop conditions have not been favorable for wheat and this has not helped support the market. It is quite possible for wheat to make a rebound, however the current trend in prices has been down.
The December USDA World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates Report (WASDE) estimated corn ending stocks at 1.257 million bushels up 6% from the November estimate of 1.182 billion bushels. The only difference from the November report was lower corn exports. Soybean ending stocks remained the same as the November report at 220 million bushels. Wheat ending stocks were also projected to be the same as the November report at 571 million bushels.
In international grain market news, Brazilian producers are anticipating one of the largest soybean crops in the nation’s history. It is highly possible production from Brazil could be greater than what the country can export. Across the border in Argentina, a different story has been driving this year’s crop with producers facing weather related issues and political stressors. The Ukrainian grain export deal that was resumed on November 19th for 120 days has come under scrutiny again by Russia claiming the deal has only benefitted wealthy nations and has not provided accommodations for Russian fertilizer exports. Russia desires for an alteration to the agreement. Despite this, Ukraine is expected to export 4.2 million tons of grain in the next four months, up from the original 1.8 million tons in a previous estimate, according to the Foreign Agricultural Service of USDA. Majority of grains expected to be exported are wheat and corn. There has been some impact in the markets of both crops due to these export estimates.
Corn Futures
Soybean Futures
Wheat Futures
