Nate Bruce, Farm Business Management Specialist, nsbruce@udel.edu
Written 9-30-2022
Corn prices steadily rose over the month of September, nearing the $7.00 / bushel mark. Prices have retreated since in the last two weeks. With harvest fully underway, have the market high prices passed already? Soybean prices have shown support at the $14.00 / bushel level in September but failing to break the $15.00 / bushel mark. Until harvest gets underway, there will be very little movement in soybean prices. September is a month where soybeans have historically hit highs and it is possible, we’ve seen this occur over the course of the past month. Wheat prices rallied over the course of September and have taken a saucer bottom appearance in the market. This has been caused by renewed tensions in Ukraine this month with Putin calling a general military mobilization and threatening the use of nuclear weapons. It is clear this conflict is far from over and it is impacting wheat prices.
The September USDA World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates Report (WASDE) estimated corn ending stocks at 1.219 billion bushels, down 12% from the August estimate of just under 1.39 million bushels. The USDA WASDE estimated reduced demand for corn for ethanol use, feed use, and exports from the August estimate. Soybean ending stocks were projected at 200 million bushels, down 19% from the August estimate of 245 million bushels. The USDA WASDE estimated reduced demand for soybean crushing, exports, production, and residual from the August estimate. Wheat ending stocks were projected at 610 million bushels, unchanged from the August estimate. The USDA WASDE estimated the demand for wheat unchanged from the August report. As of this week, 218 cargo ships have carried grain out of Ukraine. This will be something to watch in the coming weeks especially as the war changes pace with Ukrainian advances taking back land held by Russian forces since the war’s onset. Expect 2022 market volatility to continue into 2023 as uncertainty about carryover is still prevalent. Below are several futures for corn, soybeans, and wheat.
Corn Futures
Soybean Futures
Wheat Futures
