Grain Marketing Highlights – July 24, 2009

Carl German, Extension Crops Marketing Specialist;

NASS to Adjust U.S. Corn Acres
The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) announced yesterday afternoon they will collect updated information on 2009 planted acres from seven states because of ‘variable weather conditions’. We will have to wait on the results to see if anything emerges from the update that would change the dynamics of the corn market. In last night’s trading, non-commercial traders used this information as an opportunity to bid corn prices higher. The update can be expected in the August Supply/Demand revisions.

Meanwhile, new crop corn prices were headed toward testing support at $2.90 before the announcement, Dec corn futures are currently trading at $3.31 per bushel, about a 12 cent per bushel rally since the announcement was made. Weather conditions in the Corn Belt continue to be viewed as nearly ideal, giving that portion of the U.S. corn and soybean crops planted late a chance to make trend line or better yields, at least that was true as of Monday’s release of the Crop Condition report. Dry weather is now rumored to be a concern in some portions of the Corn Belt. Some would also question the lack of growing degree days that we seem to be experiencing this summer as something that might stand in the way of achieving such lofty yields. The yield forecast, that will impact the production forecast and ultimately the price, will be revised in the August report.

Market Strategy
Whether we see any pricing opportunities emerge as a result of current market action will depend on the severity of any weather problems developing across the U.S. and the degree to which NASS makes their acreage adjustments. According to this morning’s Weekly Export Sales report corn shipments were below what’s needed to meet USDA export projections for the ‘08/‘09 marketing year. U.S. corn exports need to average 53.3 million bushels weekly for the next six weeks in order to meet USDA projections of 1.8 billion bushels. The Dow hit 9,070 this morning, the dollar index is trading at 78.7, and nearby crude oil is trading at $65.15. Dec ‘09 corn futures are currently trading at $3.31; Nov ‘09 soybeans at $9.24; and Dec ‘09 SRW wheat at $5.48.

For technical assistance on making grain marketing decisions contact: Carl L. German, Extension Crops Marketing Specialist.

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