Carl German, Extension Crops Marketing Specialist; clgerman@udel.edu
Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Stock Projections Increased
Corn Analysis
Old crop corn ending stocks were increased 170 million bushels over last month’s estimate, from 1.6 to 1.77 billion bushels. Feed, and ethanol use were reduced while exports were increased for the old crop (‘08/’09 marketing year).
For the new crop, ending stocks were increased by 460 million bushels, from 1.090 to 1.550 billion bushels. Most of the increase in ending stocks is attributed to more corn acres projected to be harvested this year, now placed at 80.1 million acres (planted acres are at 87 million, 2 million more than last month). The production estimate increased 355 million bushels form a month ago and is now projected at 12.290 billion bushels. The yield estimate was left unchanged at 153.4 bushels per acre. Increases in the carry and the production estimate raised the total supply of U.S. corn for the ’09/’10 marketing year to 14.075 billion bushels, 525 million bushels larger than last month’s projection. The estimate for total domestic use of corn increased 15 million bushels from a ago due to a 50 million bushel increase in feed/residual use and a 35 million bushel decrease in food/seed/industrial use. The export estimate was increased 50 million bushels from last month, now estimated at 1.950 billion bushels. The estimate for the season average farm price was reduced 55 cents per bushel on both ends of the price ranged, now estimated at $3.35 to $4.15 per bushel.
World ending stocks for corn were increased from last month for the ‘09/’10 marketing year, from 125.476 to 139.17 million metric tons. They were also increased for the old crop, ‘08/’09 marketing year, from 138.54 to 143.82 MMT.
Soybean Analysis
The estimate for harvested acres for the current marketing year were increased by 1.5 million acres from last month, now placed at 76.5 million acres (planted area at 77.5 million acres, 1.5 million more than last month). The yield estimate at 42.6 bushels per acre was unchanged from a month ago. Beginning stocks were also left unchanged at 110 million bushels. The production estimate was increased 65 million bushels from last month. Imports were decreased 2 million bushels. Total U.S. soybean supply for the ‘09/’10 marketing year is now projected at 3.380 billion bushels, a 63 million bushel increase from the June estimate.
Minor increases in the estimates for soybean usage across the board increased total use by 23 million bushels from a month ago. The ending stocks estimate for the ‘09/’10 marketing year was increased 40 million bushels, now projected at 250 million bushels. The season average farm price was reduced by 70 cents per bushel on both ends of the price range, now projected at $8.30 to $10.30 per bushel.
World ending stocks for soybeans were reduced slightly for the ‘08/’09 marketing year and increased slightly for the ‘09/’10 marketing year from a month ago. From year to year soybean stocks are up significantly from today’s estimate of 41.04 MMT for the old crop to 51.83 MMT for the new crop year.
Wheat Analysis
U.S. wheat supply was upped 94 million bushels from a month ago for the ‘09/’10 marketing year due to an increase in acres harvested (from 48.9 to 50.4 million acres) and an increase in the yield per acre (from 41.2 to 41.9 bushels per acre). There was a slight reduction in the beginning stocks, 2 million bushels, from a month ago. Total U.S. wheat supply is now projected at 2.894 billion bushels.
The demand for U.S. wheat was increased 10 million bushels for feed use and the export estimate was increased 25 million bushels. The ending stocks estimate, at 706 million bushels, is 59 million bushels larger than last month’s estimate. The season average farm price for all wheat was trimmed 10 cents per bushel on both ends of the price range, now estimated at $4.80 to $ 5.80 per bushel.
World ending stocks for all wheat were reduced slightly for both the old and new crop years form a month ago. World ending stocks for ‘08/’09 marketing year wheat are now projected at 167.35 MMT and 181.28 MMT for the ‘09/’10 marketing year.
Summary
Of interest in today’s report, USDA did not increase the yield per acre estimate for U.S. corn or soybeans from last month, 153.4 and 42.6 bushels per acre, respectively. Overall, this report will be viewed as bearish. A bright spot was in the ending stocks estimate for old crop U.S. soybeans, left unchanged at 110 million bushels. Between now and the fall, growing conditions and outside market forces will determine whether new crop pricing opportunities return before harvest.
For technical assistance on making grain marketing decisions contact Carl L. German, Extension Crops Marketing Specialist.