Carl German, Extension Crops Marketing Specialist; clgerman@udel.edu
Tuesday, June 30, 2009, USDA Planted Acreage:
Corn Planted Acreage Up 1% from 2008
Soybean Acreage Up 2%
All Wheat Acreage Down 5%
Corn planted area for all purposes in 2009 is estimated at 87.0 million acres, up 1% from last year but 7% below 2007. This is the second largest planted acreage since 1946, behind 2007. Farmers reported that 97% of the intended corn acreage had been planted at the time of the survey interview compared with the 10-year average of 98%.
Soybean planted area for 2009 is estimated at a record high 77.5 million acres, up 2% from last year. Area for harvest, at 76.5 million acres, is up 3% from 2008, and will be the largest harvested area on record, if realized. Compared with last year, planted acreage increased by 200,000 acres or more in Kansas, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota, and South Dakota. The largest decrease is in Nebraska, down 400,000 acres from 2008, as many farmers switched to corn this year. Record high planted acreage is estimated in Kansas, New York, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania.
All wheat planted area is estimated at 59.8 million acres, down 5% from 2008. The 2009 winter wheat planted area, at 43.4 million acres, is 6% below last year but up 1% from the previous estimate. Of this total, about 31.4 million acres are Hard Red Winter, 8.4 million acres are Soft Red Winter, and 3.6 million acres are White Winter. Area planted to other spring wheat for 2009 is estimated at 13.8 million acres, down 3% from 2008. Of this total, about 13.1 million acres are Hard Red Spring wheat. Durum planted area for 2009 is estimated at 2.56 million acres, down 6% from the previous year.
USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks:
Corn Stocks Up 6% from June 2008
Soybean Stocks Down 12%
All Wheat Stocks Up 118%
Corn stocks in all positions on June 1, 2009 totaled 4.27 billion bushels, up 6% from June 1, 2008. Of the total stocks, 2.21 billion bushels are stored on farms, up 12% from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 2.06 billion bushels, are up slightly from a year ago. The March – May 2009 indicated disappearance is 2.69 billion bushels, compared with 2.83 billion bushels during the same period last year.
Soybeans stored in all positions on June 1, 2009 totaled 597 million bushels, down 12% from June 1, 2008. On-farm stocks totaled 226 million bushels, down slightly from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 371 million bushels, are down 18% from the previous year. Indicated disappearance for the March – May 2009 quarter totaled 705 million bushels, down 7% from the same period a year earlier.
All wheat stored in all positions on June 1, 2009 totaled 667 million bushels, up 118% from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 141 million bushels, up 449% from last year. Off-farm stocks, at 526 million bushels, are up 88% from a year ago. The March – May 2009 indicated disappearance is 373 million bushels, down 7% from the same period a year earlier.
Summary
The long awaited June 30 Planted Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports released today contained a few surprises that will keep these markets reeling. U.S. corn acreage did not decrease as many had expected, it actually increased by 2.41 million acres from the March planting intentions report. The other major surprise concerns the level of soybean stocks likely to be on hand at the end of the ’08/’09 marketing year, now indicated to be something north of the 110 million bushel mark.
The price implications for this report are bearish for corn, SRW wheat, and soybeans. The primary driver of these markets now becomes the weather. It will now take a weather scare to have any hope of having another opportunity to advance pre-harvest sales for new crop corn and soybeans.
USDA Export Sales Report
Pre-report estimates had weekly corn export sales at 500,000 to 900,000 metric tons (19.7 to 35.4 million bushels) combined old-crop and new-crop sales. The weekly report showed export sales of 1,155,100 metric tons (45.5 million bushels) in old-crop corn, well above 5.4 million bushels needed to meet USDA’s projection of 1.75 billion bushels, while new-crop sales were 4.6 million bushels. Total shipments of 29.2 million bushels were well below what was needed this week. This report should be viewed as neutral to bullish.
Pre-report estimates for soybeans ranged between 3.7 to 15.6 million bushels. The weekly report showed export sales of 7.1 million bushels in old-crop, above the amount needed to meet USDA’s revised projection of 1.25 bb. New-crop sales were reported at 9.2 million bushels. Total shipments of 14.2 million bushels were above what was needed this week. This report should be viewed as bullish.
Pre-report export sales estimates for wheat ranged between 7.3 to 14.7 million bushels. The weekly report showed export sales of 8.9 million bushels, below the 15.3 million bushels needed to stay on pace with USDA’s projection of 900 million bushels. Shipments of 13.5 million bushels were below what was needed this week. This report should be viewed as bearish.