Scott A. Minnick, NOAA-National Weather Service, Wakefield, VA; scott.minnick@noaa.gov, www.weather.gov
September is off to one of the coldest starts on record. Average temperatures across the state are around 4 degrees below normal through September 12. Rainfall has been slightly below normal to begin the month, but wet conditions in August have prevented any drought concerns. Guidance indicates a warming trend through late September as the ridge over the western U.S. builds eastward. This also means that overall dry conditions are anticipated as well. The Climate Prediction Center depicts above normal temperatures through late September, with below normal precipitation. That pattern could change back to cool and wet toward the end of September into October as long term guidance indicates a return to an active pattern.
Looking at the overall fall outlook for harvest planning, the Climate Prediction Center has increased probabilities for overall above normal temperatures. Less certainty expected with precipitation due to the lack of El Niño or La Niña conditions. The forecast calls for equal chances for above, below, or near normal temperatures.
September 1 marked the beginning of meteorological fall. Calendar fall begins on September 22. September is also the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. With Hurricane Irma fresh on everyone’s mind, if you haven’t already, now would be a great time to come up with a plan and be prepared for any tropical system that impacts the Mid-Atlantic.
