Scott A. Minnick, NOAA-National Weather Service, Wakefield, VA; scott.minnick@noaa.gov, www.weather.gov
Following a warm and dry June, widespread rainfall from July 4-6 has helped get July off to a relatively wet start. However, warm conditions continued with temperatures averaging 3 to 4 degrees above normal through July 12. Medium range guidance indicates the June trend returns through the end of July, with overall warm and dry conditions expected. The Climate Prediction Center agrees with outlooks for increased probabilities for above normal temperatures. The outlook for precipitation is always challenging this time of year due to the scattered nature of summertime convective. The Climate Prediction Center predicts a dry trend through the next 6-10 days, but we begin to see indications for increased probabilities for above normal rainfall to end the month.
Looking ahead to August, there is no indication the warm trend will let up. There remains a great deal of uncertainty in the precipitation outlook, as there is typically a dip in precipitation in late summer. The Climate Prediction center has resorted to equal chances for above, below, or near-normal rainfall. That outlook could always change with a potential tropical system in August as we move closer to the peak of the season. Average high temperatures across the state for August remain in the mid-80s. Overnight lows are generally in the mid-60s. Rainfall for the month is around 3 to 4 inches.
Late July Temperature Outlook
Late July Precipitation Outlook
