Scott A. Minnick, NOAA-National Weather Service, Wakefield, VA; scott.minnick@noaa.gov, www.weather.gov
The first half of June has been characterized by dry conditions. Much of the state is 1 to 2 inches below normal through June 13. That’s only 10 to 15 percent of normal to date. Temperatures overall have generally been near-normal, but cool conditions from June 6-9 and recent warm conditions have averaged out. Looking ahead for the rest of the month, long range guidance indicates a series of storm systems tracking across the Northeast and southeast Canada. This will bring the occasional (weakening) cold front and opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. As a result, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has increased probabilities for above normal precipitation through the end of the month. We will have to wait and see if there is enough widespread rainfall to make up for the lack of rain to begin the month. CPC calls for equal chances for above, below, or near-normal temperatures due to the occasional front. While this may not be very helpful, it does let us know we are likely not looking at extreme heat or cold.
Looking ahead to July, uncertainty prevails with the lack of a strong climate driver such as El-Niño or La Niña. When that is the case, we look to recent trends, which calls for equal chances for above, below, or near normal rainfall and increased probabilities for above normal temperatures. Average high temperatures across the state for July are generally in the mid-80s. Overnight lows are generally in the mid-60s. Rainfall for the month is around 4 to 4.5 inches.
Calendar summer begins June 21. Also starting in June is the Atlantic Hurricane Season. The National Hurricane Center predicts another active year with above normal activity. The prediction is for 11-17 named storms, with 5-9 of those storms becoming hurricanes. 2-4 of those named storms are forecast to become major hurricanes. The above normal forecast is due to weak, or non-existent El-Niño in the Pacific and warm waters across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean. The peak of the season occurs in September.
Late June Temperature Outlook
Late June Precipitation Outlook
2017 Hurricane Outlook
Early June Percent of Normal Rainfall
Scott A. Minnick from NOAA-National Weather Service, Wakefield, VA will provide a weather report and outlook for the Weekly Crop Update each month through September. Thank you to Phillip Sylvester, Kent Co. Ag Agent, for making these arrangements.