Nate Bruce, Farm Business Management Specialist, nsbruce@udel.edu
Written 4/21/2025
Commodity markets have been dominated by trade tariff news in April. Markets have seen extreme volatility over the course of the month. Historically, seasonal grain price highs rarely occur during the month of April but 2025 is proving to be anything but ordinary. Corn futures were propped up by a very friendly USDA World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report rallying prices by $0.20 – $0.30 across futures. The report estimated less carryover in the market with increased export demand and reduced domestic usage. There could certainly be strong support in corn prices above $4.50 across futures through the month of May barring weather issues or tariff news dampening markets. Current forward contracts locally are right around breakeven prices for dryland production, depending on own expenses. Make sure to keep an eye on corn markets in May. Soybean futures have seen the most dramatic volatility in April, mostly due to tariff news impacting expectations in the export market. Soybean futures have swung in a dramatic $0.15 – $0.80 range across futures during the month of April thus far. Brazil is expected to harvest a record soybean crop for the 2025/2026 marketing year putting them on pace to continue dominating the export market. The monthly USDA report did little to change the market in April. Soybean futures will be dominated by tariff and weather-related news moving forward into the foreseeable future. Wheat futures were impacted by tariff news, but not to the extent of corn and soybeans during the month of April. What futures have trended upward over the course of the month across futures trading in a $0.05 – $0.20 range over the course of the month. Although wheat prices have trended upward, they have come nowhere near the highs seen during the month of February.
The April USDA WASDE report was published on April 10th. As mentioned in the previous paragraph, the April report was very corn friendly. Total corn production for the marketing year was unchanged from the March estimate remaining at 14,867 million bushels. Beginning stocks remained the same at 1,763 million bushels. Domestic feed and residual demand dropped from 5,775 million bushels to 5,750 million bushels. Corn exports increased from 2,450 million bushels to 2,550 million bushels. Ending stocks dropped from 1,540 million bushels to 1,465 million bushels. The average farm season price remained unchanged from the March report at $4.35 per bushel. The April report made no revisions to soybean production for the marketing year keeping total production at 4,366 million bushels. Soybean beginning stocks were also unchanged at 342 million bushels. Imports increased from 20 million bushels to 25 million bushels. Crushing demand increased from 2,410 million bushels to 2,420 million bushels. Soybean ending stocks were dropped from 380 million bushels to 375 million bushels. The average farm season price remained the same at $9.95 per bushel. Wheat production was unchanged for the marketing year in the April report at 1,971 million bushels. Beginning stocks remained unchanged at 696 million bushels. Wheat imports increased from 140 million bushels to 150 million bushels. Domestic demand fell due to reduced seed demand. Exports fell from 835 million bushels to 820 million bushels. Wheat ending stocks increased from 819 million bushels to 846 million bushels. The average farm season price remained unchanged at $5.50 per bushel. The next USDA WASDE report will be released on May 12th at noon.
Despite drought issues in different parts of the country, Brazil’s soybean production output for the marketing year is expected to reach an all-time high at 6,150 million bushels. Argentina’s soybean production for the marketing year is projected to be at expected, at 1,822 million bushels. Paraguay, South America’s third largest soybean producer was most hit by adverse weather with projected production falling from the 2023/2024 marketing year to 320 million bushels. With the new landscape the global economy is facing with tariffs, South American countries are poised to put increased pressure on US soybean exports to China. With a strong US dollar, Chinese investments in other South American soybean producing regions such as Argentina and Paraguay could ramp up increased competition in the global export market. The Ukraine-Russia conflict’s peace negotiations have taken a blow with an Easter weekend attack, despite a negotiated ceasefire. An end to the conflict could increase grain output from both countries, impacting global markets. The conflict is certainly built into markets at this point as the conflict is now three years old.
Corn Futures
Soybean Futures
Wheat Futures
