Nate Bruce, Farm Business Management Specialist, nsbruce@udel.edu
The upward trend in corn prices has continued throughout the month of February. South American weather issues and a bullish market driven by reduced South American supplies are driving prices into historical typical seasonal price highs in the months prior to planting. It is unbelievable to think this was possible based on markets last fall. Depending on own expenses, current new corn prices could be profitable for dryland production. For irrigated production, current new corn prices could be close to being profitable as well. March and April have historically been two of the best months to market corn and soybeans. Make sure to watch markets in the months to come and ensure price target ranges are not too far spaced apart. Corn stocks to use ratio is sitting at 10.2%. Historically, prices have increased when the stocks to use ratio falls below 10%. This could be right around the corner with a favorable USDA report. Corn prices have traded in a price range of $0.05-$0.15 per bushel across all futures thus far in the month.
Soybean prices have stagnated in the high $10.00 range across futures as the South American crop becomes more in picture. The end of the month and March will be critical. Still yet, prices are higher than where they’ve been in the past half year. Renewed discussions on
tariffs could dampen the markets potential as China has been significantly reducing soybean imports in the last couple of years, not just from the US, but also Brazil as well. Keep an eye on soybean prices in the months to come as historical seasonal price highs are right around the corner. Soybean prices have traded in a respectable $0.05 – $0.25 range thus far this month. Wheat prices have also trended high in the month of February trading in a $0.05 – $0.20 range across futures. A myriad of factors geopolitical, climatic, and more are the culprits for the current upward trends in wheat prices. There is certainly optimism at this point with the current trends in grain prices coupled with the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) 2025 U.S. farm income projections. ERS projects the US net farm income will increase by 29% in 2025.
The February USDA (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) report was published on February 11th, 2025. Overall, January’s reports major revisions remained in the February report. Estimated planted corn acres remained the same as the January estimate at 90.6 million acres. Estimated corn acres harvested also was unchanged in the February report at 82.9 million acres. Estimated harvested yield per acre for the marketing year remained at 179.3 bushels per acre. Beginning stocks remained unchanged at 1763 million bushels. Corn supply and demand remained unchanged from the January estimate. Corn ending stocks remained the same at 1540 million bushels. The projected farm season price increased by $0.10 from $4.25 per bushel to $4.35 per bushel.
The February WASDE made no changes to estimated planted soybean acres from the January report leaving the total at 87.1 million. Estimated acres harvested also remained the same at 86.1 million acres. Projected harvested yield per acre also remained the same at 50.7 bushels per acre. Beginning stocks remained the same at 342 million bushels. Estimated domestic soybean supply and demand did not change from the January report. Ending stocks remained the same at 380 million bushels. The projected farm season average price dropped by $0.10 from $10.20 per bushel to $10.10 per bushel.
Projected wheat acres planted remained the same as the January estimate at 46.1 million acres. Projected wheat acres harvested also remained the same at 38.5 million bushels. Estimated yield harvested per acre remained the same as the January estimate at 51.2 million bushels. Beginning stocks were also unchanged at 696 million bushels. Wheat supply and demand is projected for higher domestic demand driven by an increase in food use. Wheat food demand increased by 4 million bushels from 966 million bushels to 970 million bushels. The increase in demand resulted in projected ending stocks falling from 798 million bushels to 794 million bushels. The average farm season price remained unchanged from the January estimate at $5.55 per bushel. The next USDA WASDE report will be released on March 11th. Make sure to keep an eye on markets around this time.
Weather issues such as extreme heat and lack of rain have dampened the projected record soybean crops in Argentina and Brazil. Some areas in the two counties grain production regions had temperatures reach 104 degrees Fahrenheit. USDA reduced its outlook for Argentina’s corn and soybean production in the February report and reduced the Brazilian corn crop (safrinha) as well. Rain is in the forecast for major Brazilian soybean production regions in Brazil before the end of February. However, dry weather is expected in March.
Peace negotiations for a prompt ending to the Ukraine-Russia war has been undergoing the past month. Much of the negotiations have centered around Ukraine making significant concessions to end the conflict promptly. An ending to the conflict could certainly impact grain markets.
Corn Futures:
Soybean Futures:
Wheat Futures:
