Nate Bruce, Farm Business Management Specialist, nsbruce@udel.edu
Corn harvest is nearing completion across much of the country. Corn sold from farms directly to end users will be slowing up significantly in the month ahead. Prices have remained steady trading in a $0.10 – $0.30 range thus far throughout the month in the low $4.00 range across futures. Corn prices may have bottomed out in mid-October as prices have reversed higher since. Although the bottom in prices may have occurred, this does not mean high prices are coming, especially considering a large carry in the market. It is important to start creating budgets for next marketing year’s corn crop to determine a profitable price level goal. Soybean prices have risen up thus far this month, but production in South America looms over the market with favorable weather conditions in Brazil. Export soybean sales have occurred, but are nowhere near where they need to be, staying well below the five-year average. There is just too much competition in the export market right now. Soybeans have traded in a $0.20 – $0.40 cent range throughout the month thus far. Wheat prices have fallen sharply as of recent but were trading relatively stagnant late October / early November. There is a large carryover in the wheat market currently dragging down prices. Although it was safe to assume this was built into the market, that may not be the case with the current movement in wheat prices. Wheat futures traded in a $0.05 – $0.40 cent range thus far in the month.
The October USDA (World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) WASDE report was published on November 8th. Estimated planted corn acres remained the same as the October estimate at 90.7 million acres. Corn acres harvested also remained the same at 82.7 million acres. Estimated yield per acre decreased from 183.8 bushels to 183.1 bushels. Total production decreased from 15,203 million bushels to 15,143 million bushels. Exports, imports, and domestic demand all remained unchanged from the October estimate. Beginning stocks remained the same at 1,760 million bushels. Ending stocks decreased from 1,999 million bushels to 1,938 million bushels. The estimated farm season average price remained the same as the October estimate at $4.10. The November report left soybean acres planted unchanged from the October estimate at 87.1 million acres. Estimated soybean acres harvested were also left unchanged at 86.3 million acres. Estimated soybean yield harvested per acre decreased slightly from 53.1 bushels per acre to 51.7 bushels per acre. Production decreased from the October estimate from 4,582 million bushels to 4,461 million bushels. Imports, seed demand, and residual demand remained unchanged from the October estimate. Crushings and exports fell from the October report. Soybean beginning stocks remained unchanged at 342 million bushels. Ending stocks fell sharply from 550 million bushels to 470 million bushels. The farm season average price remained unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. The November USDA WASDE estimate kept wheat acres planted the same as the October report at 46.1 million acres. Acres harvested also remained the same at 38.5 million acres. Estimated yield harvested per acre also remained unchanged at 51.2 bushels per acre. Beginning stocks remained unchanged from the October estimate at 696 million bushels. Production, seed demand, feed and residual demand, and exports all remained unchanged from the October report. Food demand and imports were slightly higher than the October estimates. Ending stocks increased from 812 million bushels to 815 million bushels. The farm season average price fell from $5.70 per bushel to $5.60 per bushel. The next USDA WASDE will be released on December 9th.
South America is expected to increase soybean acreage. Argentina is expected to see the most soybean acres planted in over a decade while Brazil’s soybean plantings are expected to grow as well. Although. It should be noted, expansion in Brazilian soybean acres is at the slowest pace it has been in the last ten years. It is estimated there will be 114.7 million acres of soybeans planted in Brazil for the 2024/2025 marketing year. Weather conditions in South American have been favorable thus far. American competition in the export market will dampen prices for quite some time with China preferring to purchase Brazilian soybeans in the export market. The trend of increasing grain yields is also occurring in China with the countries grain production set to be higher than last year’s output. This is critical as the country with 1.4 billion people has been reliant on the United States and Brazil to feed the nation’s population.
Corn Futures:
Soybean Futures:
Wheat Futures:
